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作者：Muehlenbachs, Lucija
作者单位：University of Calgary; Resources for the Future
摘要：The environmental remediation required to permanently decommission most industrial projects is an expensive, irreversible investment. Real options literature shows that temporary closure has value under uncertainty. However, even if there is no intention to restart operations, there is an incentive to label a closure as temporary to avoid having to remediate ongoing or future environmental externalities. I estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of closure under price and quantity uncertainty...
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作者：Dusha, Elton
作者单位：Universidad de Chile
摘要：I model the role of intermediaries in corruption and examine the effects of policy on the level of intermediated corruption, price of permits, and welfare. Intermediaries with a history of being honest earn higher premiums. The frequency of corrupt transactions is inversely related to income levels. When the government increases the fraction of profits that it extracts from entrepreneurs, intermediation intensifies, as entrepreneurs are reluctant to obtain licenses through legal means. Therefo...
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作者：Joubert, Clement
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：This article investigates the fiscal and welfare trade-offs involved in designing a pension system when workers can avoid contributing by working informally. Using a life-cycle model of labor supply and saving decisions, I structurally estimate preferences and earnings opportunities in the formal and informal sectors using data on Chilean households. I find limited support for formal jobs rationing. Instead, mandatory pension contributions significantly encourage informality. Policy experiment...
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作者：Mumtaz, Haroon; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Does the transmission of economic policies and structural shocks vary with the state of the economy? We answer this question using a strategy based on quantile regressions, which account for endogenous regressors and state-dependent parameters. An application to U.S. real activity and interest rate reveals pervasive asymmetries in the propagation mechanism across good and bad times. During periods when real activity is above its conditional average, the estimates of the degree of forward-looki...
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作者：Phillips, Peter C. B.; Shi, Shuping; Yu, Jun
作者单位：Yale University; University of Auckland; University of Southampton; Singapore Management University; Macquarie University
摘要：This article provides the limit theory of real-time dating algorithms for bubble detection that were suggested in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (PWY; International Economic Review 52 [2011], 201-26) and in a companion paper by the present authors (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2015; PSY; International Economic Review 56 [2015a], 1099-1134. Bubbles are modeled using mildly explosive bubble episodes that are embedded within longer periods where the data evolve as a stochastic trend, thereby capturing normal mar...
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作者：Byrne, David P.
作者单位：University of Melbourne
摘要：Research on differentiated products markets often uses structural demand/supply models to identify firms' marginal costs as product-level cost data are unavailable. Using unique demand and cost data from cable TV, I evaluate a differentiated products model's ability to identify marginal costs. I find firms systematically price below profit-maximizing levels, leading to biases in the model's marginal cost estimates. I study the implications for merger simulations and find that these biases comp...
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作者：Armantier, Olivier; de Bruin, Waendi Bruine; Topa, Giorgio; van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Zafar, Basit
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Leeds; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：We compare the inflation expectations reported by consumers in a survey with their behavior in a financially incentivized investment experiment. The survey is found to be informative in the sense that the beliefs reported by the respondents are correlated with their choices in the experiment. More importantly, we find evidence that most respondents act on their inflation expectations showing patterns consistent with economic theory. Respondents whose behavior cannot be rationalized tend to hav...
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作者：Dean, David; Pepper, John; Schmidt, Robert; Stern, Steven
作者单位：University of Richmond; University of Virginia
摘要：This article utilizes administrative data to examine both short- and long-term employment impacts for people with cognitive impairments who applied for vocational rehabilitation services in Virginia in 2000. These data provide long-term quarterly information on services and employment outcomes. We model behavior, allow for multiple service choices, use long-run labor market data, and use valid instruments. Results imply that services generally have positive long-run labor market outcome effect...
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作者：Sauer, Robert M.
作者单位：University of London; Royal Holloway University London
摘要：This article estimates the economic and noneconomic returns to volunteering for prime-aged women. Estimates of a DCDP model indicate that an extra year of volunteer experience increases wage offers by 8.5% in future part-time work and by 2.6% in future full-time work. On average, working for free increases lifetime earnings by 16.7%. The economic returns to volunteering are more important than the noneconomic returns in increasing lifetime utility. The model also reveals an adverse selection m...
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作者：Hori, Takeo; Ikefuji, Masako; Mino, Kazuo
作者单位：Aoyama Gakuin University; University of Southern Denmark; Kyoto University
摘要：Using a simple, multisector model of endogenous growth, we show that commodity-specific consumption externalities can be a source of structural change. When the degrees of consumption externalities are different between goods, each sector grows at a different rate. However, the aggregate economy exhibits balanced growth in that capital stock and expenditure grow at the same constant rate. A three-sector version of our model may reconcile Kaldor's stylized facts with empirically plausible profi...
