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作者：van der Meijden, Gerard; Smulders, Sjak
作者单位：Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Tilburg University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. This article presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil-saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise...
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作者：Rathke, Alexander; Straumann, Tobias; Woitek, Ulrich
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Zurich
摘要：The article discusses Sweden's monetary policy in the 1930s, which has been hailed as the first and only example of successful price-level targeting. Our contribution is twofold. First, we argue that the crucial measure that immediately ended deflationary expectations and enabled a swift recovery was a strong and involuntary devaluation of the currency, not the adoption of a new monetary policy framework. Second, starting from the recent literature on monetary policy at the zero-lower bound, w...
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作者：Aronsson, Thomas; Johansson-Stenman, Olof
作者单位：Umea University; University of Gothenburg
摘要：Much evidence suggests that people are concerned with their relative consumption. Yet, positional externalities have so far been ignored in savings-based indicators of sustainable development. This article examines the implications of relative consumption concerns for measures of sustainable development by deriving analogues to genuine saving when people are concerned with their relative consumption. Unless the positional externalities have been internalized, an indicator of such externalities...
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作者：Mehta, Nirav
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：This article develops and estimates an equilibrium model of charter school entry, school input choices, and student school choices. The structural model renders a comprehensive and internally consistent picture of treatment effects when there may be general equilibrium effects of school competition. Simulations indicate that the mean effect of charter schools on attendant students is positive and varies widely across locations. The mean spillover effect on public school students is small but p...
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作者：Pashchenko, Svetlana; Porapakkarm, Ponpoje
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
摘要：Should asset testing be used in means-tested programs? Focusing on Medicaid, we show that in the asymmetric information environment, there is a positive role for asset testing. Our tool is a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. We find that 23% of Medicaid enrollees do not work in order to be eligible. These distortions are costly: If Medicaid eligibility could be linked to (unobservable) productivity, this results in substantial welfare gains. We show that asset testing can ac...
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作者：Phan, Toan
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：I show that reputation alone can sustain nominal sovereign debt, which is subject to both the risks of default and opportunistic devaluations. Nominal debt combined with a countercyclical exchange rate policy allows more hedging against shocks than real savings if markets are incomplete. Thus, the loss of either repayment or monetary reputation severely affects the government's ability to smooth consumption. The model offers a simple explanation for the Bulow and Rogoff critique, while simulta...
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作者：Pavlidis, Efthymios G.; Paya, Ivan; Peel, David A.
作者单位：Lancaster University
摘要：The probabilistic structure of periodically collapsing bubbles creates a gap between future spot and forward (futures) asset prices in small samples. By exploiting this fact, we use a recently developed recursive unit root test and rolling Fama regressions for detecting bubbles. Both methods do not rely on a particular model of asset price determination, are robust to explosive fundamentals, and allow date stamping. An application to U.S. dollar exchange rates provides evidence of bubbles duri...
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作者：Shephard, Andrew
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：An empirical equilibrium job search model with wage posting is developed to analyze the impact of U.K. tax reforms. The model allows for a rich characterization of the labor market, with hours responses, accurate representations of the tax and transfer system, and both worker and firm heterogeneity. The British Working Families' Tax Credit and contemporaneous reforms are predicted to increase employment, with equilibrium effects found to be relatively modest. The model is used to assess the im...
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作者：Creal, Drew D.; Wu, Jing Cynthia
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：We investigate the relationship between uncertainty about monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, and economic fluctuations. We propose a new term structure model where the second moments of macroeconomic variables and yields can have a first-order effect on their dynamics. The data favor a model with two unspanned volatility factors that capture uncertainty about monetary policy and the term premium. Uncertainty contributes negatively to economic activity. Two dimensions of uncertaint...
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作者：Hong, Yongmiao; Wang, Xia; Wang, Shouyang
作者单位：Cornell University; Xiamen University; Sun Yat Sen University; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Academy of Mathematics & System Sciences, CAS; Chinese Academy of Sciences; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS
摘要：We propose a model-free test for strict stationarity. The idea is to estimate a nonparametric time-varying characteristic function and compare it with the empirical characteristic function based on the whole sample. We also propose several derivative tests to check time-invariant moments, weak stationarity, and pth order stationarity. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate excellent power of our tests. We apply our tests to various macroeconomic time series and find overwhelming evidence against stri...
