CARBON LOCK-IN: THE ROLE OF EXPECTATIONS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: van der Meijden, Gerard; Smulders, Sjak
• 署名单位: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Tilburg University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12255
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1371-1415
• 关键词: directed technological-change; DYNAMICS; GROWTH; indeterminacy; models

摘要

We argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. This article presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil-saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise, one with a transition to renewables and with low fossil efficiency and one without renewables and with high fossil efficiency. Expectations determine which equilibrium arises.