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作者：Imrohoroglu, Ayse; Zhao, Kai
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of Connecticut
摘要：In this article, we present a model that can account for the changes in the current account balance in China since the 2000s. Our results suggest that inadequate insurance through government programs for the elderly and the decline in family insurance due to the one-child policy led to large increases in the household saving rate. These increases coupled with the financial frictions preventing the household saving from being invested in domestic firms resulted in large current account surpluse...
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作者：Karle, Heiko; Moeller, Marc
作者单位：Frankfurt School Finance & Management; University of Bern
摘要：This article examines the influence of information on market performance in an advance purchase setting. Information reduces the risk that an advance purchase results in a mismatch between consumer preferences and product characteristics. However, information may also raise the number of advance purchases by increasing firms' incentive to offer advance purchase discounts. Accounting for consumers' aversion toward losses/risks turns out to be crucial as it changes our assessment of policies aim...
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作者：Cubas, German; Silos, Pedro
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Temple University
摘要：This article studies how insurance from progressive taxation improves the matching of workers to occupations. We propose an equilibrium dynamic assignment model to illustrate how social insurance encourages mobility. Workers experiment to find their best occupational fit in a process filled with uncertainty. Risk aversion and limited earnings insurance induce workers to remain in unfitting occupations. We estimate the model using microdata from the United States and Germany. Higher earnings un...
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作者：John, Andrew; King, Ian
作者单位：University of Melbourne; University of Queensland
摘要：For high-profile positions, should applicant identities be made public within the organization (open search) or kept confidential (secret search)? We construct a model where an organization seeks to hire, but where candidates' abilities are private information unless it uses open search. Rejected applicants, under open search, suffer disutility. We find the following: Salaries are lower under secret search, the expected ability of applicants decreases as the posted (open search) salary increas...
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作者：Morchio, Iacopo
作者单位：University of Vienna
摘要：A long-standing question in economics is how important unobserved differences across workers are for explaining unemployment. I revisit this topic using variation in lifetime unemployment across workers in U.S. data. A comparison of workers often unemployed with the rest shows that although differences in job-finding rates increase over the course of a career, differences in job-separation rates are large right from the start. I develop a directed search model with symmetric unobserved heterog...
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作者：Stone, Daniel F.
作者单位：Bowdoin College
摘要：I present a model of affective polarization-growth in hostility over time between two parties-via quasi-Bayesian inference. In the model, two agents repeatedly choose actions. Each choice is based on a balance of concerns for private interests and the social good. More weight is put on private interests when an agent's character is intrinsically more self-serving and when the other agent is believed to be more self-serving. Each agent Bayesian updates about the other's character, and dislikes ...
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作者：Wang, Liang; Wright, Randall; Liu, Lucy Qian
作者单位：University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; Zhejiang University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We develop a theory of money and credit as competing payment instruments, then put it to work in applications. Agents use cash and credit because the former (latter) is subject to the inflation tax (transaction costs). Frictions that make the choice of payment method interesting also imply equilibrium price dispersion. We derive closed-form solutions for money demand, and show how to simultaneously account for the price-change facts, cash-credit shares in micro data, and money-interest correla...
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作者：Haering, Alexander; Heinrich, Timo; Mayrhofer, Thomas
作者单位：Leibniz Association; RWI - Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Durham University; Harvard University
摘要：This study measures higher order risk preferences and their consistency. We explore the role of country differences, the variation of stakes, and the framing of lotteries. We observe a robust dichotomous pattern of choice behavior in China, the United States, and Germany. The majority of choices are consistent with mixed risk aversion or mixed risk-loving behavior. We also find this pattern after a 10-fold increase in the stakes. Finally, our results reveal that this pattern is strengthened if...
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作者：Diamond, Jess; Watanabe, Kota; Watanabe, Tsutomu
作者单位：Hosei University; University of Tokyo; University of Tokyo
摘要：Using a new data set, we investigate the relationship between the inflation experience and expectations of households in Japan, focusing on the post-1995 deflationary era. Our first finding is that inflation expectations increase with age. Second, we find that measured inflation rates also increase with age, although age and inflation expectations continue to exhibit a positive correlation even after controlling for the household-level inflation rate. Analysis suggests that the correlation bet...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Ferroni, Filippo; Matthes, Christian
作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We study how structural parameter variations affect the decision rules and economic inference. We provide diagnostics to detect parameter variations and to ascertain whether they are exogenous or endogenous. A constant parameter model poorly approximates a time-varying data generating process (DGP), except in a handful of relevant cases. Linear approximations do not produce time-varying decision rules; higher-order approximations can do this only if parameter disturbances are treated as decisi...
