HOUSEHOLD SAVING, FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT IN CHINA

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Imrohoroglu, Ayse; Zhao, Kai
• 署名单位: University of Southern California; University of Connecticut
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12417
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 71-103
• 关键词: social-security; capital flows; income; rates

摘要

In this article, we present a model that can account for the changes in the current account balance in China since the 2000s. Our results suggest that inadequate insurance through government programs for the elderly and the decline in family insurance due to the one-child policy led to large increases in the household saving rate. These increases coupled with the financial frictions preventing the household saving from being invested in domestic firms resulted in large current account surpluses until 2008. Relaxation of financial constraints, on the other hand, was responsible for the decline in the current account surplus after 2008.