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作者：Ma, Eunseong; Zubairy, Sarah
作者单位：Louisiana State University System; Louisiana State University; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：We document the evolution of homeownership rate across various age groups for the period 1995-2015. We find that variations in the homeownership rates are relatively large for the young, which is mostly driven by renter-to-owner transitions. In order to explain these empirical facts, we consider a life-cycle model featuring housing tenure decisions. Housing is modeled as an indivisible and lumpy investment subject to both loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI) credit constraints and tran...
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作者：Farrokhi, Farid
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：This paper develops a spatial equilibrium model with skill heterogeneity and agglomeration forces that stem from local idea exchange. I structurally estimate the model using American census data to study policy effects on real wage inequality between and within college and noncollege workers. Using the estimated model, I find: (1) Skill composition and local spillovers, respectively, account for 30% and 70% of the city-level relationship between productivity and employment. (2) Recent skill-bi...
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作者：Zhang, Daiqiang
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Albany, SUNY
摘要：This article provides identification and estimation methods for a model of contracting with externalities and imperfect information. In this model, one principal offers a contract of trade quantity to each of multiple agents, and the negotiated payment for each agent is determined via Nash bargaining. Beliefs matter due to the privacy of bilateral contracting and the externalities from the dependence of each agent's payoff on all agents' trade quantities. We provide a test to determine whether...
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作者：Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Amazon.com; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions. Although the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the emergence of additional modes. The U.S. economy has historically resolved quickly to the good mode, but we conjecture that poor policy choices could lead to prolonged periods of multimodality. We argue that multimodality arises naturally in a macrofinancial int...
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作者：Phillips, Peter C. B.; Jin, Sainan
作者单位：Yale University; University of Auckland; University of Southampton; Singapore Management University
摘要：Trend elimination and business cycle estimation are analyzed by finite sample and asymptotic methods. An overview history is provided, operator theory is developed, limit theory as the sample size n ->infinity is derived, and filtered series properties are studied relative to smoothing parameter (lambda) behavior. Simulations reveal that limit theory with lambda=O(n4) delivers excellent approximations to the HP filter for common sample sizes but fails to remove stochastic trends, contrary to s...
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作者：Grevenbrock, Nils; Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander
作者单位：European University Institute; University of Groningen; Tilburg University; Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Pretoria
摘要：This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. Direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play ...
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作者：Chemla, Gilles; Hennessy, Christopher
作者单位：Imperial College London; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of London; London Business School; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute
摘要：We incorporate structural modelers into the economy they model. Using traditional moment matching, they treat policy changes as zero probability (or exogenous) counterfactuals. Bias occurs since real-world agents understand policy changes are positive probability events guided by modelers. Downward, upward, or sign bias occurs. Bias is illustrated by calibrating the Leland model to the 2017 tax cut. The traditional identifying assumption, constant moment partial derivative sign, is incorrect w...
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作者：Phillips, Peter C. B.; Shi, Zhentao
作者单位：Yale University; University of Auckland; University of Southampton; Singapore Management University; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：We propose a procedure of iterating the HP filter to produce a smarter smoothing device, called the boosted HP (bHP) filter, based on L-2-boosting in machine learning. Limit theory shows that the bHP filter asymptotically recovers trend mechanisms that involve integrated processes, deterministic drifts, and structural breaks, covering the most common trends that appear in current modeling methodology. A stopping criterion automates the algorithm, giving a data-determined method for data-rich e...
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作者：Roemer, John E.
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：Socialism is back on the political agenda in the United States. I propose several variants of socialism, characterized by different kinds of property relation in the ownership of firms. In addition to property relations, a conception of socialism should include a specification of the cooperative ethos, in place of the individualistic ethos of capitalist society. Individualistic economic agents will optimize in the manner of John Nash, whereas cooperative ones do so in the manner of Immanuel Ka...
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作者：Larsen, Vegard Hoghaug
作者单位：Norges Bank; BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This article offers a novel identification strategy to disentangle different types of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques to classify different types of news instead of specifying a set of keywords. The article finds that, depending on its source, the effects of uncertainty on a macroeconomic variable may differ. I find t...
