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作者：Head, Allen; Lloyd-Ellis, Huw; Stacey, Derek
作者单位：Queens University - Canada; University of Waterloo
摘要：We study the composition of the housing stock across ownership and rental markets in a dynamic model of frictional assignment. Houses are rented or sold to heterogeneous households that sort over quality. Due to matching frictions and an increasing ownership surplus, wealthy households tend to own and lower value housing tends to be rented, even without financial frictions or rental supply constraints. When calibrated to match key housing market features of the average U.S. city, the model is ...
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作者：Clark, Todd E.; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Pfarrhofer, Michael
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Salzburg University; University of Strathclyde; Bocconi University; University of Vienna
摘要：We develop multivariate time-series models using Bayesian additive regression trees that posit nonlinearities among macroeconomic variables, their lags, and possibly their lagged errors. The error variances can be stable, feature stochastic volatility, or follow a nonparametric specification. We evaluate density and tail forecast performance for a set of U.S. macroeconomic and financial indicators. Our results suggest that the proposed models improve forecast accuracy both overall and in the t...
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作者：Jang, Youngsoo
作者单位：University of Queensland; University of Queensland
摘要：I study how credit and default affect optimal health insurance, constructing a life-cycle model of health investment with a strategic default option on emergency room bills and financial debts. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy and used to compare the optimal policy for Medicaid by the availability of the default option and credit. I find that strategic default induces the optimal policy to be more redistributive. With (Without) the option, the optimal income threshold for Medicaid e...
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作者：da Fonseca, Joao Galindo; Berube, Charles
作者单位：Universite de Montreal
摘要：We study the relationship between family and entrepreneurship decisions. Family influences entrepreneurship decisions via two channels: (i) Spouses work more in case of business failure and (ii) children increase the cost of failure. We use administrative matched owner-employer-employee-spouse data to estimate the predictions derived from our model. We find evidence that marriage decreases entry into entrepreneurship and increases average firm size, consistent with mechanism (ii) dominating th...
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作者：Hu, Guanliang; Ma, Guoxuan; Qiao, Wei; Wallace, Neil
作者单位：City University of Hong Kong; University of International Business & Economics; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：Conventional monetary policy involves actions by the monetary and fiscal authorities: the former sets a nominal interest rate and the latter sets lump-sum taxes to finance the implied flow of interest payments on government debt. We model such policy within an overlapping generations framework and show that absent any other frictions the magnitude of the nominal interest rate gives rise to asset substitution between government debt and either private debt or capital-substitution that has both ...
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作者：Hennessy, Christopher A.; Goodhart, Charles A. E.
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London Business School
摘要：We develop a simple structural model to illustrate how penalized regressions generate Goodhart bias when training data are clean but covariates are manipulated at known cost by future agents. With quadratic (extremely steep) manipulation costs, bias is proportional to Ridge (Lasso) penalization. If costs depend on absolute or percentage manipulation, the following algorithm yields manipulation-proof prediction: Within training data, evaluate candidate coefficients at their respective incentive...
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作者：Ikica, Barbara; Jantschgi, Simon; Nax, Heinrich H.; Duran, Diego G. Nunez; Pradelski, Bary S. R.
作者单位：University of Zurich; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA)
摘要：We conducted a large number of controlled continuous double auction experiments to reproduce and stress-test the phenomenon of convergence to competitive equilibrium under private information with decentralized trading feedback. Our main finding is that across a total of 104 markets (involving over 1,700 subjects), convergence occurs after a handful of trading periods. Initially, however, there is an inherent asymmetry that favors buyers, typically resulting in prices below equilibrium levels....
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作者：Azzimonti, Marina; Karpuska, Laura; Mihalache, Gabriel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Insper; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Entitlements have become an increasing component of total government spending in the United States over the last six decades. Using a political-economy model where parties bargain over taxes and entitlements, we argue that such dynamics can be explained by two factors: unequal growth, where top earners became richer while the income of the bottom 50% stagnated, and budget rules that provide bargaining power to low-income earners through a status quo effect. In a model calibrated to the United ...
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作者：Gomberg, Andrei; Pancs, Romans; Sharma, Tridib
作者单位：Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
摘要：We introduce a framework to theoretically and empirically examine electoral maldistricting-the intentional drawing of electoral districts to advance partisan objectives, compromising voter welfare. We identify the legislatures that maximize voter welfare and those that maximize partisan goals, and incorporate them into a maldistricting index. This index measures the intent to maldistrict by comparing distances from the actual legislature to the nearest partisan and welfare-maximizing legislatu...
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作者：Chen, Kuan-Ming; Hsieh, Yu-Wei; Lin, Ming-Jen
作者单位：National Taiwan University; Amazon.com
摘要：Leading dating platforms usually recommend only a small fraction of users based on users' popularity and similarity, leading to recommendation inequality. We use a stylized matching model from economics to modify existing algorithms to reduce inequality. We evaluate the proposed method through a large-scale field experiment on a dating platform. Experiment results suggest that our recommender reduces inequality, improves predictive accuracy, and leads to substantially more matched couples than...
