THE POWER OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Riboni, Alessandro; Ruge-Murcia, Francisco
• 署名单位: Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; McGill University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12612
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 727-756
• 关键词: monetary-policy; fomc members; rate target; preferences; inflation; dissent; rates; MODEL

摘要

This article examines the influence exerted by the Federal Reserve chair on monetary policy decisions. We construct a voting model where the chair selects the proposal that is initially put to a vote but is subject to an acceptance constraint that incorporates the preferences of the median Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member and the probability of counterproposals. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood using real-time data from FOMC meetings. Results for all chairs in our sample show that the chair's proposal is the result of a compromise, reflecting a stable balance of power within the FOMC.