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作者：Cantelmo, Alessandro; Fatouros, Nikos; Melina, Giovanni; Papageorgiou, Chris
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; International Monetary Fund; International Monetary Fund
摘要：With climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, what should central banks do in response to these catastrophic events? Looking at IMF reports for 34 disaster-years, which occurred in 16 disaster-prone countries from 1999 to 2017, reveals lack of any systematic approach adopted by monetary authorities in response to climate shocks. Using a small-open-economy New-Keynesian model with disaster shocks, we show that consistent with textbook theory, inflation targeti...
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作者：Baydur, Ismail; Xu, Jianhuan
作者单位：Singapore Management University; Singapore Management University
摘要：This article develops a job-search model with unobserved worker heterogeneity and learning about worker types from unemployment duration. The model features negative duration dependence that stems from unobserved heterogeneity, skill depreciation, and statistical discrimination. We estimate job-finding rates implied by our model using microlevel data from the Current Population Survey. We find that removing interview costs counterfactually, thereby eliminating statistical discrimination, subst...
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作者：Hall, Jonathan D.
作者单位：University of Alabama System; University of Alabama Tuscaloosa
摘要：Structural models of traffic congestion, such as the bottleneck model, are used to answer important, policy-relevant questions. However, existing models typically assume that no travelers are inframarginal regarding when to travel; that is, given equilibrium travel times, no travelers strictly prefer their ex ante departure time to all others. In this article, I address this shortcoming by incorporating inframarginal travelers into these models. This change significantly improves these models'...
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作者：Chen, Yiting; Zhong, Songfa
作者单位：Lingnan University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; National University of Singapore; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We examine source dependence in the setting of effort provision. Our first experiment elicits preference over uncertain piece rate schemes to perform a real-effort task. Our second experiment elicits effort after receiving an uncertain gift. We vary the probability of winning and the familiarity of natural sources of uncertainty. We show that subjects are averse to unfamiliar sources for moderate or high probability, but less so for low probability. Moreover, effort exhibits more insensitivity...
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作者：Conesa, Juan Carlos; Delventhal, Matthew J.; Pujolas, Pau S.; Raveendranathan, Gajendran
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; McMaster University; McMaster University
摘要：We study trade disruptions at different stages of development in a two-country, three-sector model of Spain and United Kingdom from 1850 to 2000. The impact of trade disruptions depends on trade openness and the productivity gap between countries. A trade collapse today (more openness, less gap) comparable to the Inter-War Trade Collapse (IWTC) decreases the capital stock threefold (12% instead of 4%) and lifetime consumption fourfold (1.58% instead of 0.37%). Capital accumulation amplifies th...
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作者：Hambel, Christoph; Kraft, Holger; van der Ploeg, Frederick
作者单位：Tilburg University; Goethe University Frankfurt; University of Oxford; Tilburg University
摘要：Asset pricing and climate policy are analyzed in a global economy where consumption goods are produced by both a green and a carbon-intensive sector. Given that the economy is initially heavily dependent on carbon-intensive capital, the desire to diversify assets complements the attempt to mitigate economic damages from climate change. In the longer run, however, a trade-off between diversification and climate action emerges. We derive the optimal carbon price and the equilibrium risk-free rat...
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作者：Dalgic, Husnu C.
作者单位：University of Mannheim; University of Mannheim
摘要：Households in emerging markets hold significant amounts of dollar deposits whereas firms have significant amount of dollar debt. Motivated by perceived dangers, policymakers consider regulations to limit dollarization. I draw attention to an important benefit of dollarization: it serves as an insurance arrangement in which firms provide income insurance. Emerging market exchange rates tend to depreciate in recessions so that households prefer holding deposits denominated in dollars. They effec...
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作者：Siemroth, Christoph
作者单位：University of Essex; University of Essex
摘要：What can organizations do to minimize wasteful year-end spending? I introduce a two-period model to derive optimal budget roll-over and audit rules. A principal tasks an agent with using a budget to fulfill the organization's spending needs, which are private information of the agent. The agent can misuse funds for private benefit. The optimal rules allow the agent to roll-over a share of the unused funds, but not necessarily the full share, and in most cases to audit only sufficiently large s...
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作者：Busch, Christopher; Ludwig, Alexander
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：We explore the consequences of higher-order risk in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model. We calibrate the model using a canonical income process with persistent and transitory risk, extended to feature cyclical shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis. We estimate this income process for U.S. household data, and find shocks to be highly leptokurtic, with countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of persistent shocks. In the model, first, higher-order risk h...
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作者：Jiang, Helu; Zheng, Yu; Zhu, Lijun
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; University of London; Queen Mary University London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Peking University; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：We use China's growth experience as a laboratory to study how reductions in administrative and regulatory entry barriers contribute to growth. We develop a model of endogenous productivity and market structure with heterogeneous firms and frictional entry and calibrate it to Chinese manufacturing firms. We show that the reduction of entry barriers brings about 1.05 percentage points of productivity growth over the 1990-2004 period, accounting for 18.3% of the productivity growth in the 2004-7 ...
