THE COST OF TRADE DISRUPTIONS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Conesa, Juan Carlos; Delventhal, Matthew J.; Pujolas, Pau S.; Raveendranathan, Gajendran
• 署名单位: State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; McMaster University; McMaster University
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12690
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 1133-1161
• 关键词: structural-change; demand; GROWTH; TECHNOLOGY; INVESTMENT; pattern; Brexit; IMPACT; MODEL

摘要

We study trade disruptions at different stages of development in a two-country, three-sector model of Spain and United Kingdom from 1850 to 2000. The impact of trade disruptions depends on trade openness and the productivity gap between countries. A trade collapse today (more openness, less gap) comparable to the Inter-War Trade Collapse (IWTC) decreases the capital stock threefold (12% instead of 4%) and lifetime consumption fourfold (1.58% instead of 0.37%). Capital accumulation amplifies the cost of trade disruptions. The IWTC promoted Spanish industrialization, while the opposite would be true today.