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作者：Amano, RA; Wirjanto, TS
作者单位：University of Waterloo
摘要：We examine the importance of intertemporal substitution in U.S. import consumption using a model of permanent income that allows for random preference shocks and additive separability. The latter feature allows us to take two estimation approaches. In the first approach, we show that there is a cointegrating restriction imposed by the first-order conditions of the model which allows us to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of imported and domestic goods consumption. In the second approach, ...
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作者：Calvo, GA; Mendoza, EG; Rogers, JH; Rose, AK
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作者：BenDavid, D
摘要：This paper examines the relationship between international trade and income convergence among countries by focusing on groups of countries comprising major trade partners. The majority of these trade-based groups exhibited significant convergence. Furthermore, a comparison of the trade-based groups with different country groupings (randomly selected, or according to other criteria) shows that the former were more likely to exhibit convergence than the latter.
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作者：Bond, EW; Syropoulos, C
摘要：We construct an n-country n-commodity trade model to analyze the implications of bloc size for (Nash) equilibrium tariffs and welfare. The relationship between the absolute size of (symmetric) trading blocs and their market power is ambiguous, and we illustrate how this relationship varies with model parameters. In contrast, sufficiently large increases in the relative size of a bloc enhance its relative market power and cause the welfare of its country members to rise above the free trade lev...
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作者：Frankel, JA; Rose, AK
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We use a panel of annual data for over 100 developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that is also a substantial increase in the rate of change of nominal depreciation. We examine the composition of the debt as well as its level, and a variety of other macroeconomic factors, external and foreign. Crashes tend to occur when: output growth is low; the growth of domestic credit is high; an...
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作者：Eaton, J; Kortum, S
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a model of growth and technology diffusion which we fit to aggregate data from OECD countries. Our model implies that each country will eventually grow at the same rate, with its relative productivity determined by its ability to adopt new inventions. Hence productivity levels rather than growth rates better reflect a country's ability to innovate or to adopt new technology. We estimate the model to explain international patterns of productivity and patenting. We find that more than...
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作者：Calvo, GA; Mendoza, EG
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：This paper claims that the roots of Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis are found in the prevailing high degree of capital mobility and financial globalization. Under these circumstances, shifts in foreign capital hows and anticipation of a banking-system bailout may produce large imbalances between stocks of financial assets and foreign reserves, threatening the sustainability of currency pegs. Econometric analysis suggests that half of Mexico's reserve losses could be accounted for by these ...
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作者：Aitken, B; Harrison, A; Lipsey, RE
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Queens College NY (CUNY); City University of New York (CUNY) System
摘要：This paper explores the relationship between wages and foreign investment in Mexico, Venezuela, and the United States. Despite very different economic conditions and levels of development, we find one fact that is robust across all three countries: higher levels of foreign investment are associated with higher wages. However, in Mexico and Venezuela, foreign investment is associated with higher wages only for foreign-owned firms - there is no evidence of wage spillovers leading to higher wages...
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作者：Cole, HL; Kehoe, TJ
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：This paper explores the extent to which the Mexican government's inability to roll over its debt during December 1994 and January 1995 can be modeled as a self-fulfilling debt crisis. In the model there is a crucial interval of debt for which the government, although it finds it optimal to repay old debt if it can sell new debt, finds it optimal to default if it cannot sell new debt. If government debt is in this interval, which we call the crisis zone, then we can construct equilibria in whic...
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作者：Kamin, SB; Rogers, JH
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：This paper evaluates the extent to which Mexican monetary policy in 1994 may have loosened, or not tightened sufficiently, in the lead up to the devaluation. Using econometric models of money demand, we find evidence that the high monetary base growth reflected strong positive shocks to the demand for money, not supply. Next, we show that interest rates rose only moderately less in 1994 than was predicted by an estimated reaction function. Thus to have maintained the peg, the authorities would...
