Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: A chronicle of a death foretold

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Calvo, GA; Mendoza, EG
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01436-5
• 发表日期: 1996
• 页码: 235-264
• 关键词: balance-of-payments crises; devaluation; herding behavior; Mexican crisis; Global economy

摘要

This paper claims that the roots of Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis are found in the prevailing high degree of capital mobility and financial globalization. Under these circumstances, shifts in foreign capital hows and anticipation of a banking-system bailout may produce large imbalances between stocks of financial assets and foreign reserves, threatening the sustainability of currency pegs. Econometric analysis suggests that half of Mexico's reserve losses could be accounted for by these phenomena. Large financial imbalances are also fertile ground for self-fulfilling-prophesy crises which lead devaluations to produce deep recessions. These difficulties can be partly remedied by appropriate policies.