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作者：Kindleberger, CP
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
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作者：Bansal, R; Dahlquist, M
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; Duke University
摘要：In this paper we document new results regarding the forward premium puzzle. The often Found negative correlation between the expected currency depreciation and interest rate differential is, contrary to popular belief, not a pervasive phenomenon. It is confined to developed economies, and here only to states where the U.S. interest rate exceeds foreign interest rates. Furthermore, we find that differences across economies are systematically related to per capita GNP, average inflation rates, a...
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作者：Calvo, GA; Mendoza, EG
作者单位：Duke University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper argues that globalization may promote contagion by weakening incentives for gathering costly information and by strengthening incentives for imitating arbitrary market portfolios. In the presence of short-selling constraints, the gain of gathering information at a fixed cost may diminish as markets grow. Moreover, if a portfolio manager's marginal cost for yielding below-market returns exceeds the marginal gain for above-market returns, there is a range of optimal portfolios in whic...
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作者：Kaminsky, GL; Reinhart, CM
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; George Washington University
摘要：Since the Tequila crisis of 1994-95, the Asian flu of 1997, and the Russian virus of 1998, economists have been busy producing research on the subject of contagion. Yet, few studies have examined empirically through which channels the disturbances are transmitted if there are, indeed, fundamental reasons for the spillovers we observe. We attempt to fill this gap by analyzing how both trade links and the largely ignored financial sector links influence the pattern of fundamentals-based contagio...
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作者：Obstfeld, M; Rogoff, K
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University
摘要：The paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages. Explicit solution of the wage-setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare, expected output, and the expected terms of trade. Despite the potential interplay between imperfections due to sticky wages and monopoly, the optimal monetary policy rule has a closed-form solution. To motivate our model, we show that observed correlations b...
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作者：Svensson, J
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：Why has the macroeconomic impact of foreign aid seemingly been so poor? Is there a relationship between the widespread level of corruption and other types of rent-seeking activities and concessional assistance? To answer these questions we provide a simple game-theoretic rent-seeking model. The model has a number of implications. First, under certain circumstances, an increase in government revenue lowers the provision of public goods. Second, the mere expectation of aid may suffice to increas...
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作者：Hau, H
作者单位：ESSEC Business School
摘要：This paper introduces factor (labor) markets into the intertemporal monetary model of Obstfeld and Rogoff and combines this richer market structure with a new utility-independent representation of nontradeables. This allows us to explore the international monetary transmission mechanism for factor price (wage) rigidities under different degrees of macroeconomic openness. Factor price rigidities imply similar properties for the international transmission mechanism as domestic producer price rig...
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作者：Panagariya, A
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：This paper addresses two questions: (i) can factor content of trade be used to measure the effect of trade on wage inequality in a given year, with tastes and technology constant; and (ii) can it be used to measure the contribution of trade to the change in wage inequality between 2 years, with tastes and technology allowed to change? Deardorff and Staiger (Journal of International Economics, 24 (1988) 93-107) had shown that the answer to the first question can be given in the affirmative prov...
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作者：Svensson, LEO
作者单位：Stockholm University
摘要：The paper examines inflation targeting in a small open economy with forward-looking aggregate supply and demand with microfoundations, and with stylized realistic lags in the different monetary-policy transmission channels. The paper compares strict and flexible targeting of CPI and domestic inflation, and inflation-targeting reaction functions and the Taylor rule. Flexible CPI-inflation targeting does not limit the variability of CPI inflation but also the variability of the output gap and th...
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作者：Baldwin, RE; Forslid, R
作者单位：Lund University
摘要：This paper introduces a new approach to the analysis of endogenous growth effects and uses it to illustrate two novel trade-and-growth links. The approach's simplicity allows us to introduce scale economies and imperfect competition into the R&D and financial intermediation sectors of a Romer-Grossman-Helpman endogenous growth model. We show that trade liberalisation can stimulate growth via a procompetitive effect in the R&D sector and/or financial sector. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All. ...
