On crises, contagion, and confusion

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Kaminsky, GL; Reinhart, CM
• 署名单位: University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; George Washington University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(99)00040-9
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 145-168
• 关键词: contagion; crises; TRADE; finance; herding

摘要

Since the Tequila crisis of 1994-95, the Asian flu of 1997, and the Russian virus of 1998, economists have been busy producing research on the subject of contagion. Yet, few studies have examined empirically through which channels the disturbances are transmitted if there are, indeed, fundamental reasons for the spillovers we observe. We attempt to fill this gap by analyzing how both trade links and the largely ignored financial sector links influence the pattern of fundamentals-based contagion. We examine the role of international bank lending, the potential for cross-market hedging, and bilateral and third-party trade in the propagation of a ises. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.