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作者：Hayri, A
作者单位：Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
摘要：This paper develops pricing formulae for sovereign debt by incorporating strategic debt relief games into a model of debt pricing under continuous time uncertainty. Two types of debt relief for sovereign borrowers are considered: debt reductions and exit deals. The formulae provide a good fit to the data and generate plausible predictions in a simulation analysis. The paper also examines how the availability of credible commitment mechanisms affects the amount of debt reduction. Compared with ...
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作者：Engel, C
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Recent tests using long data series find evidence in favor of long-run PPP, These tests may have reached the wrong conclusion. Using artificial data calibrated to nominal exchange rates and disaggregated data on prices, we show that tests on long-run PPP have serious size biases. In the baseline case, unit root and cointegrarion tests with a nominal size of 5% have true sizes that range from 0.90 to 0.99 in 100-year long data series, even though there is a permanent component that accounts for...
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作者：Groen, JJJ
作者单位：Tinbergen Institute; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
摘要：Pure time series-based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models. In this paper we apply pooled time series estimation on a forward-looking monetary model, resulting in parameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlying theory. Based on a panel version of the Engle and Granger [Engle, R.F., Granger, C.W.J., 1987. Go-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing, Econometrica 55, 251-276] two-step procedure we find that the re...
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作者：Kumhof, M
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：The quantitative implications of a model of balance of payments crises are explored. The model analyzes government sterilization of capital outflows through low interest rates on domestic debt. This prevents a collapse in money demand but instead leads to a collapse in bond demand and therefore an increase in central bank domestic credit. The theory's implications are consistent with the Mexican experience of 1994, but much less so with Indonesia in 1997 and Brazil in 1998. (C) 2000 Elsevier S...
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作者：Kim, SJ; Kim, YJ
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Dongduk Women's University
摘要：A multi-sector general equilibrium model is presented where education enhances general human capital, which is essential for increasing or maintaining the mobility of workers across industries. The paper shows that international trade, combined with education, can have a positive growth effect by allowing workers to move easily to, and specialize in, the industry with the greatest productivity in each period, which enables an economy to grow in the long run at the growth rate of the industry w...
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作者：Feenstra, RC; Rose, AK
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
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作者：Ludema, RD; Wooton, I
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Glasgow; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：In models of economic geography, plant-level scale economies and trade costs create incentives for spatial agglomeration of production into a manufacturing core and agricultural periphery, creating regional income differentials. We examine tax competition between national governments to influence the location of manufacturing activity. Labor is imperfectly mobile and governments impose redistributive taxes. Regional integration is modeled as either increased labor mobility or lower trade costs...
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作者：Kaneko, A
作者单位：Institute of Science Tokyo; Tokyo Institute of Technology
摘要：By incorporating human capital accumulation into a dynamic trade model, we examine the relationship between the growth rate and the specialization pattern of a growing economy. We found that as long as its autarky price differs from the world price, a small open-economy eventually specializes completely. Furthermore, the impact of the terms of trade on the growth rate depends on the trade pattern. Specifically, if a country specializes in a capital commodity, the growth rate is unaffected by t...
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作者：Turunen-Red, AH; Woodland, AD
作者单位：University of Sydney; University of Louisiana System; University of New Orleans
摘要：We specify a many-nation, many-commodity model of international trade involving tariff and quota distortions. We derive conditions for the existence of strict Pareto improving multilateral reforms of quotas, and obtain recommendations for specific directions of such quota reforms. Given a mild rank condition on the world trade matrix, all directions of quota reform that attain a strict Pareto improvement using international lump sum compensation remain strict Pareto improving even without lump...
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作者：Backus, DK; Crucini, MJ
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices. We find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over the last twenty five years and its quantitative role varies significantly over time. And since our dynamic general equilibrium model predicts that the economy responds differently to oil supply shocks th...
