A quantitative exploration of the role of short-term domestic debt in balance of payments crises

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Kumhof, M
• 署名单位: Stanford University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(99)00042-2
• 发表日期: 2000
• 页码: 195-215
• 关键词: balance of payments crises; capital outflows; Interest rates; sterilization

摘要

The quantitative implications of a model of balance of payments crises are explored. The model analyzes government sterilization of capital outflows through low interest rates on domestic debt. This prevents a collapse in money demand but instead leads to a collapse in bond demand and therefore an increase in central bank domestic credit. The theory's implications are consistent with the Mexican experience of 1994, but much less so with Indonesia in 1997 and Brazil in 1998. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.