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作者：Medin, H
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：This article presents a model of international trade under monopolistic competition. In the increasing returns sector firms face fixed, in addition to variable, trade costs, and both exporters and non-exporters may coexist. Exporters benefit from access to large foreign markets, thus a small country has a higher share of exporting firms than a large one. In contrast to standard models, the increasing returns sector will be more open in a small country than in a large one, and a small country m...
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作者：Schiff, M; Chang, W
作者单位：The World Bank; United States Department of the Treasury
摘要：This paper examines the impact of market presence and contestability on the price behavior of US exporters in Brazil's market when MERCOSUR and MFN trade liberalization take place. Using detailed panel data on trade and tariff rates, we find that both the preferred supplier's market presence and threat of entry lower (raise) the US price reaction to MFN (preferential) trade liberalization, with similar quantitative effects. Thus, presence in, or threat of entry into, partners' markets implies ...
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作者：Engel, C; Rogers, JH; Rose, AK
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Federal Reserve System - USA; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
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作者：Solomon, R
作者单位：Brookings Institution
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作者：Clarida, RH; Sarno, L; Taylor, MP; Valente, G
作者单位：University of Warwick; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display nonlinearities. This paper proposes a term-structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime-switching vector equilibrium corr...
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作者：Harrison, AE; McMillan, MS
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Tufts University
摘要：Firms in developing countries cite credit constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment. Direct foreign investment may ease credit constraints by bringing in scarce capital. Alternatively, if foreign firms borrow heavily from domestic banks, they may crowd local firms out of domestic capital markets. Using firm data from the Ivory Coast, we test whether: (1) domestic firms are more credit constrained than foreign firms, and (2) whether borrowing by foreign firms exacerbates domes...
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作者：Qiu, LD
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
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作者：Kilian, L; Taylor, MP
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank
摘要：Recent empirical evidence suggests that the time series behavior of the real exchange rate is well approximated by a nonlinear, exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR) model. This nonlinearity helps resolve a number of puzzles concerning the persistence and volatility of real exchange rates. In this paper, we explore whether it may also help resolve the well-known difficulties of exchange rate forecasting. We develop a bootstrap test of the random walk hypothesis of the nominal ex...
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作者：Domaç, K; Peria, MSM
作者单位：The World Bank; Prime Ministry Turkey; Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
摘要：This paper investigates the linkages between banking crises and exchange rate regimes, using a comprehensive cross-country dataset for the last two decades. The paper examines whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the likelihood, cost, and duration of banking crises. Empirical results seem to indicate that adopting a fixed exchange rate diminishes the likelihood of banking crises among developing countries. However, once crises occur, the real costs associated with them appear to ...
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作者：Yi, KM
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
