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作者：Uribe, M
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using an optimizing model of a small open economy, this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of PPP rules whereby the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate-defined as the price of tradables in terms of nontradables-is below its long-run level and reduces the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. The paper shows that the mere existence of such a rule can generate aggregate instability due to self-fulfilling expectations. The...
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作者：Knetter, MM; Prusa, TJ
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines the relationship between antidumping filings and macroeconomic factors. Real exchange rate fluctuations affect the two criteria for dumping in opposite ways, making the overall effect on filings ambiguous in theory. Examining the filing patterns of the four major users of AD law during the 1980-98 period we find that real exchange rates and domestic real GDP growth both have statistically significant impacts on filings. Bilateral filing data indicate that a one-standard dev...
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作者：Matschke, X
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：This paper investigates the equivalence of optimal import tariffs and quotas in a Cournot duopoly model when firms have more information about demand than the domestic government. I consider a screening model in which the government offers the domestic firm different contracts from which to choose. I show that the availability and cost of obtaining correct information from the firm depends upon the choice of trade policy instrument. Asymmetric information thus destroys the equivalence of tarif...
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作者：Schmitt-Grohé, S; Uribe, M
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：The small open economy model with incomplete asset markets features a steady-state that depends on initial conditions and equilibrium dynamics that possess a random walk component. A number of modifications to the standard model have been proposed to induce stationarity. This paper presents a quantitative comparison of these alternative approaches. Five different specifications are considered: (1) A model with an endogenous discount factor (Uzawa-type preferences); (2) a model with a debt-elas...
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作者：Faust, J; Rogers, JH; Wright, JH
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We examine the real-time forecasting performance of standard exchange rate models, using dozens of different vintages of data. Favorable evidence of long-horizon exchange rate predictability for the DM and Yen found in Mark (American Economic Review 1995;85:201-218) is present in only a two-year window of data vintages around that originally used. Approximately one-third of the improved forecasting performance over a random walk is eventually undone by data revisions. We also find the models c...
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作者：Peretto, PF
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：This paper studies the growth and welfare effects of integration in a world economy populated by global oligopolists. In economies that move from autarky to trade, growth and welfare rise because exit of domestic firms is more than compensated by entry of foreign firms so that integration generates a larger, more competitive market where firms have access to a larger body of technological spillovers that support faster growth. The effects of a gradual reduction of tariffs are different because...
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作者：Lai, ELC; Qiu, LD
作者单位：City University of Hong Kong; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We build a multi-sectoral North-South trade model to analyze international intellectual property rights (IPR) protection. By comparing the Nash equilibrium IPR protection standard of the South (the developing countries) with that of the North (the developed countries), we find that the former is naturally weaker than the latter. Moreover, we show that both regions can gain from an agreement that requires the South to harmonize its IPR standards with those of the North, and the North to liberal...
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作者：Bradford, S
作者单位：Brigham Young University
摘要：This paper develops a model of protection and tests it using US data, including new protection measures. We find that protection in an industry increases with its employment but not with its level of output. We also find that lobbying entails significant transactions costs. We have limited evidence that industry characteristics, such as the number of firms and geographical concentration, affect protection. Nested tests imply that assuming lumpsum rebating of import revenues or rents is justifi...
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作者：Okajima, Y
摘要：In [Journal of International Economics 36 (1994) 333], Larry Qiu developed a model of an optimal export promotion policy under asymmetric information. In the Bertrand competition, he shows that the expected welfare is larger under the uniform policy than under the separation-inducing policy. Actually, in this note, we show that no such separating equilibrium exists. Although his main conclusion in the Bertrand competition analysis is unaffected, his reasoning in the paper is misleading. (C) 20...
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作者：Cadot, O; de Melo, J; Olarreaga, M
作者单位：The World Bank; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Geneva
摘要：In a political-economy setting where tariffs and duty drawbacks are endogenously chosen through industry lobbying, it is shown that full duty-drawbacks are granted to exporters who use imported intermediates in their production. This in turn decreases their incentives to counter-lobby against high tariffs on their inputs. In equilibrium, higher tariffs will be observed on these goods. The creation of a regional block will change the political equilibrium. Duty-drawbacks will be eliminated on i...
