Net exports, consumption volatility and international business cycle models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Raffo, Andrea
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.10.001
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 14-29
• 关键词: net exports; International business cycles; home production; consumption volatility

摘要

Conventional two-country RBC models interpret countercyclical net exports as reflecting primarily the dynamics of capital. I show that, quantitatively, theoretical economies rely on counterfactual terms of trade effects: trade fluctuations, on the contrary, are driven by consumption smoothing, thus generating procyclical net trade in goods. I then consider a class of preferences that embeds home production in a reduced form: consumption volatility increases so that countercyclical net exports reflect primarily a strong relation between consumption and imports, as in the data. The major discrepancy between theory and data concerns the variability of international prices. Published by Elsevier B.V.