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作者：Lafortune, Jeanne; Tessada, Jose; Gonzalez-Velosa, Carolina
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：We study the impact of immigration-induced changes in labor supply within agriculture in the US during early 20th century, a sector where shifting output mix may be easier than in previously studied industries (manufacturing), on output and production choices. We find evidence of output mix adjustments at the county-level in response to immigration as predicted by trade models. Moreover, that response is only visible in diversified counties. Counties with higher initial specialization, likely ...
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作者：Chu, Angus C.; Cozzi, Guido; Lai, Ching-Chong; Liao, Chih-Hsing
作者单位：University of Liverpool; University of St Gallen; Academia Sinica - Taiwan; Chinese Culture University; National Chengchi University; National Sun Yat Sen University
摘要：This study explores the long-run effects of inflation in a two-country Schumpeterian growth model with cash-in-advance constraints on consumption and R&D investment. We find that increasing domestic inflation reduces domestic R&D investment and the growth rate of domestic technology. Given that economic growth in a country depends on both domestic and foreign technologies, increasing foreign inflation also affects the domestic economy. When each government conducts its monetary policy unilater...
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作者：Mitchener, Kris James; Wandschneider, Kirsten
作者单位：Santa Clara University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Occidental College
摘要：We examine the first widespread use of capital controls in response to a global or regional financial crisis. In particular, we analyze whether capital controls mitigated capital flight in the 1930s and assess their causal effects on macroeconomic recovery from the Great Depression. We find evidence that they stemmed gold outflows in the year following their imposition; however, time-shifted, difference-in-differences (DD) estimates of industrial production, prices, and exports suggest that ca...
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作者：Sposi, Michael
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：In this paper I quantitatively address the role of trade barriers in explaining why prices of services relative to tradables are positively correlated with levels of development across countries. I argue that trade barriers play a crucial role in shaping the cross-country pattern of specialization across many tradable goods. I construct a multi-country, general equilibrium model of trade and derive tractable predictions that show how specialization affects relative prices. I calibrate the mode...
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作者：Ossa, Ralph
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I show that accounting for cross-industry variation in trade elasticities greatly magnifies the estimated gains from trade. The main idea is as simple as it is general: while imports in the average industry do not matter too much, imports in some industries are critical to the functioning of the economy, so that a complete shutdown of international trade is very costly overall. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Niepmann, Friederike
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：The international linkages between banks play a crucial role in today's global economy. Existing models explain these links largely on the basis of portfolio theory, in which banks diversify lending. These models have found limited empirical support and do not speak to several relevant dimensions of the data. They do not explain heterogeneity in the degree to which banks operate through foreign affiliates, fund their activities abroad or matter for local lending in foreign countries. This pape...
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作者：Forlati, Chiara
作者单位：University of Southampton
摘要：This paper revisits the question of the appropriate domain of a currency area using a New-Keynesian open economy model in which the world is split into two areas, each framed as a continuum of small open regions. We show that the adoption of a common currency like the euro can be beneficial for the members of the monetary union, since the spill-over effects generated by the inflationary policies of the small open economies are likely to outweigh the costs of not tailoring monetary policy to co...
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作者：Kehoe, Timothy J.; Rossbach, Jack; Ruhl, Kim J.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; New York University
摘要：This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). We evaluate the ability of our methodology to account for the industry-level variation in export growth by using our model to predict the growth in industry trade from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). We show that our method performs significantly better than the applied gener...
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作者：Liao, Wei; Santacreu, Ana Maria
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; INSEAD Business School; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Countries that trade more with each other tend to have more strongly correlated business cycles. Yet, traditional international business cycle models predict a much weaker link between trade and business cycle comovement We propose that fluctuations in the number of varieties embedded in trade flows may drive the observed comovement by increasing the correlation among trading partners' aggregate productivity. Our hypothesis is that business cycles should be more strongly correlated between cou...
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作者：Seitz, Michael; Tarasov, Alexander; Zakharenko, Roman
作者单位：University of Munich; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
摘要：This paper develops a quantitative model of trade, military conflicts, and defense spending. Lowering trade costs between two countries reduces probability of an armed conflict between them, causing both to cut defense spending. This in turn causes a domino effect on defense spending by other countries. As a result, both countries and the rest of the world are better off. We estimate the model using data on trade, conflicts, and military spending. We find that, after reduction of costs of trad...
