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作者：Hsu, Po-Hsuan; Taylor, Mark P.; Wang, Zigan
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; University of Warwick
摘要：We carry out a large-scale investigation of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market, using daily data over 45 years for 30 developed and emerging market currencies. Employing a stepwise test to counter data snooping bias and examining over 21,000 technical rules, we find evidence of substantial predictability and excess profitability in both developed and emerging currencies, measured against a variety of performance metrics. We cross-validate our results using out-of-sample ana...
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作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：By using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we provide new evidence on the open-economy effects of government spending, focusing on a well-known puzzle in the literature, that the real exchange rate depreciates in response to a fiscal expansion. Much of government spending is well anticipated over a one year horizon. Once news and surprise shocks are treated as different shocks, there is no depreciation puzzle for news shocks while it is still there for surprise shocks. Fiscal foresight s...
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作者：Alcala, Francisco
作者单位：University of Murcia
摘要：This paper explores the link between specialization across goods and specialization within goods along the quality dimension. It develops a tractable many-country, many-industry Ricardian model with an integer number of heterogeneous firms producing each good, under a generic assumption about the distributions of firm efficiencies. In equilibrium, each country exports a range of qualities for each good that overlaps with the ranges of other countries following patterns that relate to wage diff...
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作者：Albornoz, Facundo; Fanelli, Sebastian; Hallak, Juan Carlos
作者单位：University of Nottingham; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas (CONICET); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Universidad de San Andres Argentina
摘要：This paper explores the determinants of firm survival in export markets. We build an exporter dynamics model where firms need to pay market-specific sunk and fixed costs to operate abroad and where firm export profitability in each foreign market follows a geometric Brownian motion. Firms also differ ex ante by a constant market-specific profitability shifter. We derive the probability of export survival upon entry in a market and show that it increases with the ratio of sunk to fixed costs an...
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作者：Epstein, Brendan; Mukherjee, Rahul; Ramnath, Shanthi
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; United States Department of the Treasury
摘要：We extend a standard model of international risk sharing to include an empirically plausible distortion: Taxes. The tax-inclusive theory implies, even under full risk sharing, a predictable relationship between consumption growth and the consumption and capital income tax rates, both within and across countries. We find strong empirical evidence in favor of this relationship. While idiosyncratic output fluctuations account for substantially more of cross-country consumption growth variability ...
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作者：Kandilov, Ivan T.; Leblebicioglu, Asli; Petkova, Neviana
作者单位：North Carolina State University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas; United States Department of the Treasury
摘要：We evaluate the effects of state-level banking deregulation that resulted in improved access to cheaper local finance on foreign firms investing in the U.S. We provide direct, micro-level evidence from U.S. inbound foreign direct investment transactions showing that interstate banking, but not intrastate branching, deregulation increased the number of transactions, reduced the average transaction value, and boosted overall investment by foreign multinationals. We also show that lower cost of l...
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作者：Cacciatore, Matteo; Fiori, Giuseppe; Ghironi, Fabio
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; North Carolina State University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper addresses the consequences of product and labor market deregulation for monetary policy in a two country monetary union with endogenous product creation and labor market frictions. We show that when regulation is high in both countries, optimal policy requires significant departures from price stability both in the long run and over the business cycle. The adjustment to market reform requires expansionary policy to reduce transition costs, but deregulation reduces static and dynamic...
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作者：Kara, Gazi Ishak
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper examines the incentives of national regulators to coordinate capital adequacy requirements in the presence of systemic risk in global financial markets. In a two-country model, correlated asset fire sales by banks generate systemic risk across national financial markets. Absent coordination, national regulators choose inefficiently low levels of macro-prudential regulation. Thus, symmetric countries always benefit from relinquishing their authority to a central regulator that establ...
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作者：Aubry, Amandine; Burzynski, Michal; Docquier, Frrederic
作者单位：heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne; Paris School of Economics; Universite Catholique Louvain; Poznan University of Economics & Business; Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
摘要：This paper quantifies the effect of global migration on the welfare of non-migrant OECD citizens. We develop an integrated, multi-country model that accounts for the interactions between the labor market, fiscal, and market size effects of migration, as well as for trade relations between countries. The model is calibrated to match the economic and demographic characteristics of the 34 OECD countries and the rest of the world, as well as trade flows between them in the year 2010. We show that ...
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作者：Conconi, Paola; Sapir, Andre; Zanardi, Maurizio
作者单位：Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Lancaster University
摘要：We examine how uncertainty affects firms' internationalization choices. We begin by unveiling a new empirical regularity: using a unique dataset that allows us to study the dynamics of firms' exports and foreign direct investments (FDI) in individual destinations, we show that most firms serve a market via exports before investing there. To rationalize this pattern, we describe a model in which firms are uncertain about their profitability in a foreign market and may experiment via exports bef...
