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作者：Goodfriend, M; King, RG
作者单位：Boston University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：The reduction in inflation that occurred in the early 1980s, when the Federal Reserve was headed by Paul Volcker, is arguably the most widely discussed and visible macroeconomic event of the last 50 years of U.S. history. Inflation had been dramatically rising, but under Volcker, the Fed first contained and then reversed this process. Using a simple modern macroeconomic model, we argue that the real effects of the Volcker disinflation were mainly due to its imperfect credibility. In our view, ...
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作者：Orphanides, A
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
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作者：Woodford, M
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：The use of a long-term interest rate as the instrument of monetary policy would not have the advantage, sometimes claimed for it, of relaxing the constraint on what can be achieved by monetary policy when the zero lower bound on short-term interest rates is reached. The proposal would also seem an impractical one to implement. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Evans, CL
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
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作者：Marshall, DA
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：The methodology proposed in Flood and Rose [2005. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: a systematic exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5) 951-969] fails to distinguish between the single unique marginal rate of substitution (MRS) process and the class of valid pricing kernels, of which the MRS is but a particular member. Thus, at best, this methodology explores the properties of some arbitrary pricing kernel, which may differ radically from t...
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作者：McGough, B; Rudebusch, GD; Williams, JC
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Oregon State University
摘要：Using a short-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument can be problematic near its zero bound constraint. An alternative strategy is to use a long-term interest rate as the policy instrument. We find when Taylor-type policy rules are used by the central bank to set the long rate in a standard New Keynesian model, indeterminacy-that is, multiple rational expectations equilibria - may often result. However, a policy rule with a long-rate policy instrument that responds in a forward-l...
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作者：Gallmeyer, MF; Hollifield, B; Zin, SE
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Mays Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Recent empirical research shows that a reasonable characterization of federal-funds-rate targeting behavior is that the change in the target rate depends on the maturity structure of interest rates and exhibits little dependence on lagged target rates. See, for example, Cochrane and Piazzesi [2002. The Fed and interest rates-a high-frequency identification. American Economic Review 92, 90-95.]. The result echoes the policy rule used by McCallum [1994a. Monetary policy and the term structure of...
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作者：Walsh, CE
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Recent research in monetary economics has followed the advice of McCallum [1988. Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series oil Public Policy 29, 173-203] and investigated the robustness properties of monetary policy rules by evaluating them in a variety of models. Evaluation across models is typically based on an exogenously specified loss function. However, the theory on which many recent monetary policy models are based implies that changes in ...
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作者：Levin, AT
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
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作者：Andrés, J; López-Salido, JD; Nelson, E
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Valencia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：A major criticism of standard specifications of price adjustment in models for monetary policy analysis is that they violate the natural rate hypothesis by allowing output to differ from potential in steady state. In this paper we estimate a dynamic optimizing business cycle model whose price-setting behavior satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. The price-adjustment specifications we consider are the sticky-information specification of Mankiw and Reis (Sticky information versus sticky prices...
