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作者：Jermann, Urban J.; Quadrini, Vincenzo
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California
摘要：Together with a sense of entering a New Economy, the U.S. experienced in the second half of the 1990s an economic expansion, a stock market boom, a financing boom for new firms and productivity gains. This article proposes an interpretation of these events within a general equilibrium model with financial frictions and decreasing returns to scale in production. We show that the mere prospect of high future productivity growth can generate sizable gains in current productivity, as well as the o...
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作者：Gahvari, Firouz
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：In overlapping generations models, money growth creates intergenerational wealth effects and leads to the breakdown of the Friedman rule; the rule can be restored via lump-sum tax and transfers that neutralize these wealth transfers. Additionally, and in contrast to money-in-the-utility-function models, the Friedman rule is not the unique first-best solution in cash-in-advance-constraint models of money: a continuum of combinations of money growth rates and consumption taxes implement the firs...
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作者：King, Thomas B.; Morley, James
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：The natural rate of unemployment can be measured as the time-varying steady state of a structural vector autoregression. For post-War US data, the natural rate implied by this approach is more volatile than most previous estimates, with its movements accounting for the bulk of the variation in the unemployment rate, as well as substantial portions of the variation in aggregate output and inflation. These movements, in turn, can be related to variables associated with labor-market search theory...
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作者：Gomme, Paul; Rupert, Peter
作者单位：Concordia University - Canada; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：Calibration has become a standard tool of macroeconomics. This paper extends and refines the calibration methodology along several important dimensions. First, accounting for home production is important both in measuring calibration targets and in organizing the data in a model-consistent fashion. For this reason, thinking about home production is important even if the model under consideration does not include home production. Second, investment-specific technological change is included beca...
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作者：Kawamura, Enrique
摘要：This paper presents a small-open-economy, two-good version of the Diamond and Dybvig model with cash constraints to analyze the implications on banking of different exchange rate regimes and monetary policies. I show that fixed exchange rates with a Central Bank providing liquidity in local currency imply Pareto efficiency, with conditions for a run equilibrium stronger than in the literature. In a flexible exchange rate regime, multiple equilibria may not be eliminated. In particular, for ver...
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作者：Balduzzi, Pierluigi; Yao, Tong
作者单位：Boston College; University of Arizona
摘要：Starting from the cross-sectional aggregation of marginal utilities, rather than intertemporal marginal rates of substitution, this paper develops a new heterogeneous-agent pricing kernel. A closed-form version of the new kernel depends on changes in the cross-sectional variance of log consumption, rather than the variance of changes in log consumption, as in Constantinides and Duffie [1996. Asset pricing with heterogeneous consumers. Journal of Political Economy 104, 219-237]. We implement th...
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作者：Kotlikoff, Laurence J.; Smetters, Kent; Walliser, Jan
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University; The World Bank
摘要：Financing Social Security benefits at current levels implies significant increases in payroll taxes within the next 20 years under current US demographic developments. Using a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations model with realistic patterns of fertility and lifespan extension, this study shows that future generations would be harmed during the demographic transition due to rising pavroll taxes, which crowd out savings and slow real wage growth below the rate of technological progress....
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作者：Adam, Klaus
作者单位：European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper determines optimal nominal demand policy in a flexible price economy in which firms pay limited attention to aggregate variables. Firms' inattentiveness gives rise to idiosyncratic information errors and imperfect common knowledge about the shocks hitting the economy. This is shown to have strong implications for optimal nominal demand policy. In particular, if firms' prices are strategic complements and economic shocks display little persistence, monetary policy has strong real eff...
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作者：Basistha, Arabinda; Nelson, Charles R.
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; West Virginia University
摘要：Forward-looking versions of the New Keynesian Phillips curve imply that the output gap, the deviation of the actual output from its natural level due to nominal rigidities, drives the dynamics of inflation relative to expected inflation. We exploit this to set up a bivariate unobserved component model for extracting new estimates of the output gap in the US. The gap estimates are large and persistent even after allowing for correlated trend and cycle shock. We then augment our model to use the...
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作者：Schaumburg, Ernst; Tambalotti, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Northwestern University
摘要：We propose a simple framework for analyzing a continuum of monetary policy rules characterized by differing degrees of credibility, in which commitment and discretion become special cases of what we call quasi-commitment. The monetary policy authority is assumed to formulate optimal commitment plans, to be tempted to renege on them, and to succumb to this temptation with a constant exogenous probability known to the private sector. By interpreting this probability as a continuous measure of th...
