In search of the natural rate of unemployment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: King, Thomas B.; Morley, James
• 署名单位: Washington University (WUSTL)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.11.002
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 550-564
• 关键词: structural vector autoregression; natural rate of unemployment; search theory; sectoral shifts; Phillips curve

摘要

The natural rate of unemployment can be measured as the time-varying steady state of a structural vector autoregression. For post-War US data, the natural rate implied by this approach is more volatile than most previous estimates, with its movements accounting for the bulk of the variation in the unemployment rate, as well as substantial portions of the variation in aggregate output and inflation. These movements, in turn, can be related to variables associated with labor-market search theory, including unemployment benefits, labor productivity, real wages, and sectoral shifts in the labor market. There is also a strong negative relationship between inflation and the corresponding measure of cyclical unemployment, supporting the existence of a short-run Phillips curve. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.