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作者：Dedola, Luca; Neri, Stefano
作者单位：European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：This paper estimates the effects of technology shocks in VAR models of the U.S., identified by imposing restrictions on the sign of impulse responses. These restrictions are consistent with the implications of a popular class of DSGE models, with both real and nominal frictions, and with sufficiently wide ranges for their parameters. This identification strategy thus substitutes theoretically motivated restrictions for the atheoretical assumptions on the time-series properties of the data that...
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作者：Leduc, Sylvain; Sill, Keith; Stark, Tom
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Using survey data on expectations, we examine whether the response of monetary policy to sudden movements in expected inflation contributed to the persistent high inflation of the 1970s. The evidence suggests that, prior to 1979, the Fed accommodated temporary shocks to expected inflation, which then led to persistent increases in actual inflation. We do not find this behavior in the post 1979 data. Among commonly cited factors, oil and fiscal shocks do not appear to have triggered an increase...
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作者：Burstein, Ariel; Eichenbaum, Martin; Rebelo, Sergio
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Large devaluations are generally associated with large declines in real exchange rates. We develop a model which embodies two complementary forces that account for the large declines in the real exchange rate that occur in the aftermath of large devaluations. The first force is sticky nontradable-goods prices. The second force is the impact of real shocks that often accompany large devaluations. We argue that sticky nontradable goods prices generally play an important role in explaining post-d...
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作者：Wallace, Neil; Zhu, Tao
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Cornell University
摘要：From 1863-1914, banks in the U.S. could issue notes subject to full collateral, a tax on outstanding notes, redemption of notes on demand, and a clearing fee per issued note cleared through the Treasury. The system failed to satisfy a purported arbitrage condition: the yield on collateral exceeded the tax rate plus the product of the clearing fee and the average clearing rate of notes. The failure is explained by a model in which note issuers choose to issue notes only in trades that produce a...
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作者：Dwyer, Gerald P., Jr.; Hasan, Iftekhar
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
摘要：We present evidence on the effects of suspensions of payments from an episode that is close to a controlled experiment for examining those effects. In 1861, about 44% of the banks in Wisconsin closed, 81% of the banks in Illinois closed, and noteholders suffered substantial losses. The historical record suggests that an effective suspension of payments in Wisconsin but not in Illinois may explain the difference. Our statistical evidence indicates that the suspension of payments increased the p...
