-
作者：King, Thomas B.; Morley, James
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：The natural rate of unemployment can be measured as the time-varying steady state of a structural vector autoregression. For post-War US data, the natural rate implied by this approach is more volatile than most previous estimates, with its movements accounting for the bulk of the variation in the unemployment rate, as well as substantial portions of the variation in aggregate output and inflation. These movements, in turn, can be related to variables associated with labor-market search theory...
-
作者：Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Mansfield, Richard K.; Moore, Michael
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Yale University; Queens University Belfast
摘要：In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with univers...
-
作者：Chang, Roberto
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The simultaneous determination of financial default and political crises is studied in an open economy model. Political crises accompany default in equilibrium because of an information transmission conflict between the government and the public. Multiple equilibria are possible: if foreign lenders are pessimistic about the country's stability, they demand a high interest on the debt, exacerbating distortions and possibly leading to political crisis; but if lenders are optimistic, the cost of ...
-
作者：Ashcraft, Adam B.; Campello, Murillo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The functioning of internal capital markets in financial conglomerates facilitates a novel identification strategy of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. We look at small subsidiary banks that are affiliated with the same holding company but operate in different geographical areas. These banks face the same marginal cost of funds due to internal capital markets, but face different borrowers as they concentrate their lending with small local businesses. Exploring cross-sectional varia...
-
作者：West, Kenneth D.
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
-
作者：Gollin, Douglas; Parente, Stephen L.; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Williams College; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：In most poor countries, large fractions of land, labor, and other productive resources are devoted to producing food for subsistence needs. We show that a model incorporating the food problem can provide new and useful insights into the evolution of international income levels. In particular, we find that the food problem can explain why some countries started to realize increases in per capita output more than 250 years later in history than others. We also show that the food problem has impo...
-
作者：Bridgman, Benjamin R.; Livshits, Igor D.; MacGee, James C.
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：The asymmetric ability of different interest groups to exclude non-members and the concentrated benefits and diffused costs of policies favoring vested interests matters for technology adoption. We analyze a political economy model where coalitions of workers in many small industries lobby government for a prohibition on the adoption of superior technologies. For reasonable parameter values, the smallness of industry lobbies leads to barriers to the adoption of technologies that would make all...
-
作者：Gomme, Paul; Rupert, Peter
作者单位：Concordia University - Canada; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：Calibration has become a standard tool of macroeconomics. This paper extends and refines the calibration methodology along several important dimensions. First, accounting for home production is important both in measuring calibration targets and in organizing the data in a model-consistent fashion. For this reason, thinking about home production is important even if the model under consideration does not include home production. Second, investment-specific technological change is included beca...
-
作者：Coenen, Guenter; Levin, Andrew T.; Christoffel, Kai
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; European Central Bank
摘要：We formulate a generalized price-setting framework that incorporates staggered contracts of multiple durations and that enables us to directly identify the influences of nominal vs. real rigidities. We estimate this framework using macroeconomic data for Germany (1975-1998) and for the U.S. (1983-2003). In each case, we find that the data are well-characterized by nominal contracts with an average duration of about two to three quarters. We also find that new contracts exhibit very low sensiti...
-
作者：Guimaraes, Bernardo; Morris, Stephen
作者单位：Princeton University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Market participants' risk attitudes, wealth and portfolio composition influence their positions in a pegged foreign currency and, therefore, may have important effects on the sustainability of currency pegs. This paper analyzes such effects in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action choices, generating a rich set of theoretical comparative static predictions related to often discussed but rarely modelled accounts of currency attacks. The model can be solved in closed form...
