Demographic change, social security systems, and savings

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Mansfield, Richard K.; Moore, Michael
• 署名单位: Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Yale University; Queens University Belfast
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.12.004
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 92-114
• 关键词: savings; Demographic change; population economics; social security systems

摘要

In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.