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作者：Madsen, Jakob B.
作者单位：Monash University
摘要：Conventional growth accounting exercises are extended in this paper to allow for endogeneity of capital, demographic transitions, age dependency, and employment rates, among other factors. Using data for the OECD countries in the period 1870-2006 it is shown that growth has been predominantly driven by demographics and TFP growth. TFP has, in turn, been driven by R&D, knowledge spillovers through the channel of imports, educational attainment, and the interaction between educational attainment...
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作者：Lein, Sarah M.
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：The price-setting behavior of manufacturing firms is examined using a large panel of quarterly firm survey data from 1984 to 2007, which allows changes in firms' prices to be linked to several firm-specific variables. The results show that state-dependent pricing is clearly present in a low-inflation environment and that variables measuring the current situation of the firm, especially costs for intermediate products, are important determinants of price adjustments. Compared to purely time-dep...
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作者：Abe, Naohito; Tonogi, Akiyuki
作者单位：Hitotsubashi University; Mitsubishi International Corporation (MIC)
摘要：Using Japanese daily scanner data with three billion observations of prices and quantities from 1988 to 2005, this paper investigates micro and macro price dynamics. These data reveal that the frequency of price changes is much larger than that found in standard monthly datasets. The price change frequency exhibits a clear trend and strong across-store heterogeneity, which casts doubts on standard New Keynesian assumptions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on scanner data appears to track ...
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作者：Baeriswyl, Romain; Cornand, Camille
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universites de Strasbourg Etablissements Associes; Universite de Strasbourg
摘要：In an economy affected by shocks that are imperfectly known, the monetary instrument takes on a dual stabilizing role: as a policy response that directly influences the economy and as a vehicle for information that reveals the central bank's assessment to firms. Because mark-up shocks cannot be neutralized by monetary policy, providing firms with more information about these shocks exacerbates their reaction and creates a larger distortion. Recognizing the signaling role of its instrument, the...
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作者：Karnizova, Lilia
作者单位：University of Ottawa
摘要：While news shocks are believed to be instrumental in explaining business cycles, many existing models fail to predict a boom in consumption, investment, employment, output and asset prices in response to good news about future productivity. A model with the intrinsic desire for wealth is shown to generate the aforementioned responses. A news-driven boom is explained predominantly by an expansion of labor supply and is characterized by the falling real wage. The simulated model not only capture...
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作者：Singh, Aarti
作者单位：University of Sydney
摘要：The aggregate effects of market incompleteness are studied in a model where agents face idiosyncratic, uninsurable human capital investment risk. Using a life-cycle model with a version of a Ben-Porath (1967) human capital accumulation technology, stationary equilibria of calibrated cases are analyzed in which risk arises from specialization risk and career risk. With career risk only, stationary equilibria resemble those studied by Aiyagari (1994), and the impact of uninsurable idiosyncratic ...
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作者：Prati, Alessandro; Sbracia, Massimo
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：How does uncertainty about fundamentals affect speculation in the foreign exchange markets? This paper studies empirically the role of uncertainty in currency crises. Uncertainty, which is measured using the dispersion of survey forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, is found to have a non-monotonic effect on exchange rate pressures: it heightens speculative pressures when expected fundamentals are good and eases them when they are bad. This prediction is consistent with a broad class of cu...
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作者：Dennis, Richard
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Model uncertainty has the potential to change importantly how monetary policy is conducted, making it an issue that central banks cannot ignore. Using a standard new Keynesian business cycle model, this paper analyzes the behavior of a central bank that conducts policy under discretion while fearing that its model is misspecified. The main results are as follows. First, policy performance can be improved if the discretionary central bank implements a robust policy. This important result is obt...
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作者：Meh, Cesaire A.; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Terajima, Yaz
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：An unanticipated rise in the price level redistributes wealth from lenders to borrowers. Its size depends on the monetary policy regime, as inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT) have different implications for the price-level path following price-level movements. The effects of an unexpected 1% price-level increase are measured and assessed under both regimes. Overall, the redistribution of wealth and the implied aggregate and welfare effects are larger under IT than they are...
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作者：Menzio, Guido; Moen, Espen R.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：Consider a labor market in which firms want to insure existing employees against income fluctuations and, simultaneously, want to recruit new employees to fill vacant jobs. Firms can commit to a wage policy, i.e. a policy that specifies the wage paid to their employees as a function of tenure, productivity and other observables. However, firms cannot commit to employ workers. In this environment, the optimal wage policy prescribes not only a rigid wage for senior workers, but also a downward r...
