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作者：Taylor, John B.
作者单位：Stanford University
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作者：Sleet, Christopher
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
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作者：Smetters, Kent
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
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作者：Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
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作者：Farmer, Roger E. A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This paper uses a model with a continuum of equilibrium steady state unemployment rates to explore the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The existence of multiple steady state equilibria is explained by the presence of search and recruiting costs. I use the model to explain the current financial crisis as a shift to a high unemployment equilibrium, induced by the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants about asset prices. I ask two questions. (1) Can fiscal policy help us out of the crisi...
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作者：Merz, Monika
作者单位：University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
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作者：Monacelli, Tommaso; Perotti, Roberto; Trigari, Antonella
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：We estimate the effects of fiscal policy on the labor market in US data. An increase in government spending of 1 percent of GDP generates output and unemployment multipliers, respectively, of about 1.2 percent (at one year) and 0.6 percentage points (at the peak). Each percentage point increase in GDP produces an increase in employment of about 1.3 million jobs. Total hours, employment and the job finding probability all rise, whereas the separation rate falls. A standard neoclassical model au...
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作者：Davig, Troy; Leeper, Eric M.; Walker, Todd B.
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A rational expectations framework is developed to study the consequences of alternative means to resolve the unfunded liabilities problem-unsustainable exponential growth in federal Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending with no plan to finance it. Resolution requires specifying a probability distribution for how and when monetary and fiscal policies will change as the economy evolves through the 21st century. Beliefs based on that distribution determine the existence of and the natu...
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作者：Del Negro, Marco; Perri, Fabrizio; Schivardi, Fabiano
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Cagliari
摘要：The paper studies a fiscal policy instrument that can reduce fiscal distortions without affecting revenues, in a politically viable way. The instrument is a private contract (tax buyout), offered by the government to each citizen, whereby the citizen can choose to pay a fixed price in exchange for a given reduction in her tax rate for a period of time. We introduce the tax buyout in a dynamic overlapping generations economy, calibrated to match several features of the US income, taxes and weal...
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作者：Freedman, Charles; Kumhof, Michael; Laxton, Douglas; Muir, Dirk; Mursula, Susanna
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Carleton University
摘要：The IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model is used to compute short-run multipliers of fiscal stimulus measures and long-run crowding-out effects of higher debt. Multipliers of two-year stimulus range from 0.2 to 2.2 depending on the fiscal instrument, the extent of monetary accommodation and the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. A permanent 10 percentage point increase in the US debt to GDP ratio raises the US tax burden and world real interest rates in the long run, t...
