Technological revolutions and the Three Great Slumps: A medium-run analysis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cao, Dan; L'Huillier, Jean-Paul
• 署名单位: Georgetown University; Brandeis University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.04.003
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 93-108
• 关键词: aggregate productivity; permanent income; learning; Secular stagnation; financial crises

摘要

The Great Recession, the Great Depression, and the Japanese Slump of the 1990s were all preceded by periods of major technological innovation, which happened about 10 years before the start of the decline in economic activity. We estimate a model with noisy news. We find that beliefs about long-run income adjust to permanent shifts in productivity with an important delay. The estimation tells a common and simple story for the observed dynamics of productivity and consumption on a 20 to 25 year window. Our analysis highlights the advantages of a look at this data from the point of view of the medium run. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.