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作者：Bodenstein, Martin; Guerrieri, Luca; LaBriola, Joe
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We develop a toolbox that characterizes the welfare-maximizing cooperative Ramsey policies under full commitment and open-loop Nash games between policymakers. We adopt the timeless perspective. Two examples for the use of our toolbox offer novel results. The first example revisits the case of monetary policy coordination in a two-country model to highlight sensitivity to the choice of policy instruments. For the second example, a central bank and a macroprudential policymaker are assigned dis...
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作者：Jeanne, Olivier; Korinek, Anton
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Virginia; University of Virginia
摘要：The interaction between debt accumulation and asset prices magnifies credit booms and busts. Borrowers do not internalize these feedback effects and therefore suffer from excessively large booms and busts in both credit flows and asset prices. We show in a dynamic model that a time-consistent policymaker finds it optimal to internalize these externalities by imposing a Pigouvian tax on borrowing that is the product of three simple sufficient statistics. A numerical illustration shows that the ...
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作者：Kaymak, Baris; Schott, Immo
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：The corporate tax code allows corporations to write off operating losses against past or future tax obligations, resulting in effective tax rates that are firm-specific and dependent on the history of the firm's performance. Since losses partly reflect a drop in productivity, which is generally persistent, firms with higher expected productivity face higher tax rates. We analyze the distortionary effects of loss-offset provisions on investment and assess the output loss implied by the misalloc...
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作者：Tang, Jenny
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston
摘要：Hansen et al. (2019) highlight an uncertainty effect on long-term interest rates, particularly term premia, of central bank communication using novel measures constructed directly from the text of the Bank of England's Inflation Report. This comment takes a more in-depth look at these narrative measures, showing that the measures identified as being important for explaining the short-rate expectations and term premia components of interest rates are equally important for explaining overall int...
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作者：Schilling, Linda; Uhlig, Harald
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris; University of Chicago
摘要：We provide a model of an endowment economy with two competing, but intrinsically worthless currencies (Dollar, Bitcoin). Dollars are supplied by a central bank to achieve its inflation target, while the Bitcoin supply grows deterministically. Our fundamental pricing equation implies in its simplest form that Bitcoin prices form a martingale. Mutual impatience implies absence of speculation. Price volatility therefore does not invalidate the medium-of-exchange function. Bitcoin block rewards ar...
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作者：Bielecki, Marcin; Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal; Kolasa, Marcin
作者单位：University of Warsaw; Warsaw School of Economics; Narodowy Bank Polski
摘要：This note discusses the article The limits of forward guidance by Jeffrey R. Campbell, Filippo Ferroni, Jonas D. M. Fisher and Leonardo Melosi. The Authors make an excellent contribution to the literature on solving the forward guidance puzzle by proposing that central bank communication is imperfect (noisy) and thus announcements of the monetary policy stance many periods ahead have a limited impact on agents' decisions. By estimating a rich DSGE model, using a wide set of US data including i...
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作者：Dossche, Maarten; Lewis, Vivien; Poilly, Celine
作者单位：European Central Bank; Deutsche Bundesbank; Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite
摘要：Bilateral bargaining between a multiple-worker firm and individual employees leads to overhiring. With a concave production function, the firm can reduce the marginal product by hiring an additional worker, thereby reducing the bargaining wage paid to all existing employees. We show that this externality is amplified when firms can adjust hours per worker as well as employment. Firms keep down workers' wage demands by reducing the number of hours per worker and the resulting labor disutility. ...
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作者：Duersch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.
作者单位：Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg
摘要：In an experimental study with price-setting firms we find that inflation significantly reduces real prices (by lowering price markups) and significantly raises welfare compared to the treatment with a constant overall price level. Money illusion and a reduced ability to collude in an environment with a constantly changing, i.e., increasing, price level drive this result. In a third treatment with deflation, collusion is somewhat reduced as well, but money illusion pushes prices up so that welf...
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作者：Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Mumtaz, Haroon
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：Credit markets are an important link in the propagation of economic uncertainty. We study the nexus between the two using a nonlinear VAR where uncertainty is captured by the volatility of the economy's structural shocks and its transmission mechanism is allowed to change in periods of financial distress. We find that, in the USA, uncertainty shocks have recessionary effects at all times, but their impact on output is six times larger when the economy is going through a financial crisis. Uncer...
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作者：Gao, George P.; Lu, Xiaomeng; Song, Zhaogang; Yan, Hongjun
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Johns Hopkins University; DePaul University
摘要：When two investors agree to disagree on market prospects and bet against each other, both expect to profit from their trades. Hence, an increase in disagreement leads to higher perceived trading profits and lower marginal utilities for both investors, so disagreement betas can affect cross-sectional asset returns. We construct a disagreement measure using professional forecasts of U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals. Betas with respect to this disagreement factor positively explain cross-sectional...
