2019

最新文章

• Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe AI翻译
  作者：Campos, Nauro F.; Coricelli, Fabrizio; Moretti, Luigi
  作者单位：Brunel University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Paris School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
  摘要：The literature on the growth effects of European integration remains inconclusive. This is due to severe methodological difficulties mostly driven by country heterogeneity. This paper addresses these concerns using the synthetic control method. It constructs counterfactuals for countries that joined the European Union (EU) from 1973 to 2004. We find that growth effects from EU membership are large and positive, with Greece as the exception. Despite substantial variation across countries and ov...
• Discussion of Trading down and the Business Cycle AI翻译
  作者：Quadrini, Vincenzo
  作者单位：University of Southern California; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
  摘要：This note discusses the article Trading Down and the Business Cycle by Nir Jaimovich, Sergio Rebelo and Arlene Wong. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
• Comment on Forward guidance: Communication, commitment, or both? by Marco Bassetto AI翻译
  作者：Duarte, Fernando
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• The short rate disconnect in a monetary economy AI翻译
  作者：Lenel, Moritz; Piazzesi, Monika; Schneider, Martin
  作者单位：Princeton University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：In modern monetary economies, most payments are made with inside money provided by payment intermediaries. This paper studies interest rate dynamics when payment intermediaries value short bonds as collateral to back inside money. We estimate intermediary Euler equations that relate the short safe rate to other interest rates as well as intermediary leverage and portfolio risk. Towards the end of economic booms, the short rate set by the central bank disconnects from other interest rates: as c...
• Comment on Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on forward guidance by Michael Ehrmann, Gaetano Gaballo, Peter Hoffmann and Georg Strasser AI翻译
  作者：Campbell, Jeffrey R.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
  摘要：Ehrmann et al. contains very useful international evidence on the efficacy of forward guidance at anchoring expectations of future policy rates at the ELB. The authors give one finding particular attention, that short-term time-consistent forward guidance raises the responses of expected future policy rates to macroeconomic data surprises. I argue that this empirical result should be interpreted with caution. Nevertheless, the paper's development of a novel theoretical explanation for it based...
• The long-run information effect of central bank communication AI翻译
  作者：Hansen, Stephen; McMahon, Michael; Tong, Matthew
  作者单位：Imperial College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bank of England
  摘要：Why do long-run interest rates respond to central bank communication? Whereas existing explanations imply a common set of signals drives short and long-run yields, we show that news on economic uncertainty can have increasingly large effects along the yield curve. To evaluate this channel, we use the publication of the Bank of England's Inflation Report, from which we measure a set of high-dimensional signals. The signals that drive longrun interest rates do not affect short-run rates and oper...
• Comment on Measuring euro area monetary policy by Carlo Altavilla, Luca Brugnolini, Refet Gurkaynak, Giuseppe Ragusa and Roberto Motto AI翻译
  作者：Wright, Jonathan H.
  作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：Most of the time, ECB monetary policy can be characterized as working through the term structure of riskfree OIS rates, as considered in the paper by Carlo Altavilla and his coauthors. But some very important policy actions over the European debt crisis instead work mainly through sovereign spreads. The database constructed by the authors can also be used to analyze monetary policy surprises that work through these spreads. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
• Real sectoral spillovers: A dynamic factor analysis of the great recession AI翻译
  作者：Li, Nan; Martin, Vance L.
  作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Melbourne
  摘要：Dynamic factor methods are used to identify the impact of common and idiosyncratic shocks on sixteen U.S. nonfarm business sectors. This paper then studies changes in the transmission of these shocks across sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. The Great Recession is found to be largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks-which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility-and large spillovers of negative finance-related shocks. In addition, prior...
• State-level implications of federal tax policies: Comments AI翻译
  作者：Mertens, Karel
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
  摘要：This note provides comments on the contribution by Chang Liu and Noah Williams in this issue. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
• Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market AI翻译
  作者：Neuhierl, Andreas; Weber, Michael
  作者单位：University of Notre Dame; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：The slope factor is constructed from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons and predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster policy easing positively predicts returns. It contains information about the speed of future monetary policy tightening and loosening, and predicts changes in interest rates and forecast revisions of professional forecasters. The tone of speeches by FOMC members correlates with the slope factor. The predictive power concentrates in times of high...