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作者：Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Ricco, Giovanni
作者单位：Bank of England; Bank of England; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Warwick
摘要：IV methods have become the leading approach to identify the effects of macroeconomic shocks. Conditions for identification generally involve all the shocks in the VAR even when only a subset of them is of interest. This paper provides more general conditions that only involve the shocks of interest and the properties of the instrument of choice. We introduce a heuristic and a formal test to guide the specification of the empirical models, and provide formulas for the bias when the conditions a...
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作者：Moon, Ji-Woong
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：Referrals are prevalent in the U.S. labor market. To understand their aggregate effects, this paper studies an equilibrium model of on-the-job search and job referrals. In the model, referrals are modeled as a strategic interaction between a referrer and a firm. The equi-librium model shows that referrals benefit job searchers whose outside option is above a threshold. I support this prediction by showing that the referral wage premium exists only for employed job searchers. Quantitatively, re...
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作者：Chen, Cheng; Senga, Tatsuro; Sun, Chang; Zhang, Hongyong
作者单位：Clemson University; University of London; Queen Mary University London; Keio University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：Using a long panel data set on Japanese firms, we find that firms make more precise forecasts and less autocorrelated forecast errors as they gain more experience. Then, we build a firm dynamics model where firms gradually learn about their demand by using a noisy signal. Using expectations data over time, we cleanly isolate the learning mechanism from other mechanisms and find that it accounts for 20%-40% of the overall decline in forecast errors over the life cycle. Productivity gains from r...
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作者：Dovern, Jonas; Mueller, Lena Sophia; Wohlrabe, Klaus
作者单位：University of Erlangen Nuremberg; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation. Variables (fixed effects) measuring local signals account for up to 26 % (47 %) of the expectation dispersion across firms. The effect is particularly strong for small firms. Our results confirm predict...
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作者：Jia, Chengcheng; Wu, Jing Cynthia
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the implications of average inflation targeting (AIT). AIT improves the inflationoutput trade-off when the private sector believes the central bank's announcement. Ex post, the central bank has the incentive to implement inflation targeting instead to maximize social welfare. Next, we examine whether and how the central bank can convince the private sector, and find ambiguous communication helps the central bank gain credibility and improve welfare. These results apply to several key ...
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作者：Bayer, Christian; Born, Benjamin; Luetticke, Ralph
作者单位：University of Bonn; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Frankfurt School Finance & Management; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：Expansionary fiscal policy lowers the return difference between public debt and less liquid assets-the liquidity premium. We rationalize this finding in an estimated heterogeneous -agent New-Keynesian model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice, in which public debt affects private liquidity. This liquidity channel stabilizes fixed-capital investment. We then quantify the long-run effects of higher public debt and find little crowding out of capital, but a sizable decline of the liquidi...
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作者：Baslandze, Salome
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
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作者：Celik, Murat Alp
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：The misallocation of talent in innovation - missing Einsteins - has a first-order impact on growth and welfare. Surname-level empirical analysis combining inventor and census micro-data reveals people from richer backgrounds are more likely to become inventors, but those from high-education backgrounds become more prolific inventors. Motivated by this discrepancy, an endogenous growth model with financial frictions on the household side is developed. Individuals compete for scarce inventor tra...
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作者：Lee, Byoungchan
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：Advanced economies have been experiencing productivity slowdowns, rising inequality, and low consumption-to-wealth ratios in recent decades. Using an analytically tractable endogenous growth model with heterogeneous households, I emphasize a channel that connects inequality with productivity growth through aggregate consumption demand and the returns to R&D. Given realistic increases in wealth (inclusive of income) inequality, the calibrated model generates transition dynamics featuring produc...
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作者：De Graeve, Ferre; Schneider, Jan David
作者单位：KU Leuven
摘要：US business cycles can be empirically characterized as a time-varying mix of different sectoral shocks. Sectoral shocks are distinct from aggregate shocks and better capture business cycle fluctuations. A typical recession (or boom) is interpreted as the combination of a few sectoral shocks, which encompass more diverse origins than the typical narrative prevalent for that recession. Sectoral shocks have aggregate consequences through strong input-output network effects. Identification is base...
