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作者：Gilchrist, Simon; Schoenle, Raphael; Sim, Jae; Zakrajsek, Egon
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Brandeis University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：During the 2010-12 eurozone crisis, deviations of price and wage dynamics from those implied by canonical Phillips curves were systematically related to differences in financial strains across countries. Most notably, markups in financially weak (periphery) countries rose, while those in financially strong (core) countries declined. In a monetary union model, where financial frictions interact with the firms' pricing decisions because of customer-market considerations, firms in the periphery m...
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Gomez-Cram, Roberto; Kind, Thilo; Kung, Howard
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of London; London Business School
摘要：A high-frequency approach is used to analyze the effects of President Trump's tweets that criticize the Federal Reserve on financial markets. Identification exploits a short time window around the precise timestamp for each tweet. The average effect on the expected fed funds rate is negative and statistically significant, with the magnitude growing by horizon. The tweets also lead to an increase in stock prices and to a decrease in long-term U.S. Treasury yields. VAR evidence shows that the tw...
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作者：de Groot, Oliver; Haas, Alexander
作者单位：University of Liverpool; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Oxford; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：Negative policy rates can convince markets that deposit rates will remain lower-for-longer, even when current deposit rates are constrained by zero. This is the signalling channel of negative interest rates. We analyse the optimality and effectiveness of negative rates in the context of this novel transmission channel. In a stylized model, we prove two necessary conditions for optimality: time-consistency and a preference for policy smoothing. In an estimated model, we show the signalling chan...
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作者：Herreno, Juan; Ocampo, Sergio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：We evaluate the aggregate effects of expansions of credit supply in environments where subsistence self-employment is prevalent. We extend a standard macro development model to include unemployment risk, which becomes a key driver of selection into self-employment. The model is consistent with the joint distribution of earnings and occupa-tions, the reaction of wages to labor demand shocks, and the small effects of expansions in the supply of microloans on the earnings of the self-employed. We...
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作者：Erosa, Andres; Fuster, Luisa; Martinez, Tomas R.
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Universidade de Brasilia
摘要：What are the aggregate effects of informality in a financially constrained economy? We develop and calibrate an entrepreneurship model to data on matched employer-employee from both formal and informal sectors in Brazil. The model distinguishes between infor-mality on the business side and the hiring of informal workers by formal businesses. Poli-cies that reduce business informality increase aggregate output by 10.8%, TFP by 6.6%, and tax revenue by 33.2%. On the contrary, output and TFP decr...
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作者：Ueda, Kozo
作者单位：Waseda University
摘要：To consider the strategic pricing of duopolistic firms and its implications for monetary policy, this study constructs a tractable duopoly model with price stickiness. Dynamic strategic complementarity, in which an increase in a firm's price increases the optimal price set by the rival firm in the following periods, increases steady-state price and the real effect of monetary policy. However, when temporary sales arise as a mixed strategy, the real effect of monetary policy decreases considera...
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作者：Lippi, Francesco; Perri, Fabrizio
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：Over the past 50 years, households in the United States have experienced changes in earn-ings dynamics that have resulted in a large increase in inequality. This paper assesses the impact of these changes on aggregate growth and welfare. We begin by inspecting a simple statistical decomposition of aggregate earnings growth using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the period 1967-2018. The decomposition expresses aggregate earn-ings growth as the sum of two terms. The first is the...
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作者：Li, Lei; Loutskina, Elena; Strahan, Philip E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Virginia; Boston College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：By increasing funding stability, deposit market power reduces banks' funding risk over the cycle and provides the flexibility to originate long-term loans. Banks with deposit HHI one standard deviation above average extend loans with about 20% longer maturity than those one standard deviation below average. Deposit market power also allows banks to charge lower maturity premiums. The effects persist in the sample of zero-duration, floating rate loans. This has real effects: access to banks rai...
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作者：Glover, Andrew; Heathcote, Jonathan; Krueger, Dirk; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：To slow the COVID-19 virus, many countries shut down parts of the economy. Older individuals have the most to gain from slowing virus diffusion. Younger workers in shuttered sectors have most to lose. We build a model in which economic activity and disease progression are jointly determined. Individuals differ by age, sector and health status. Disease transmission occurs at work, at home, through consumption, and in hospitals. Optimal economic shutdowns in 2020 are milder when taxes are distor...
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作者：Bocconi, Luigi Iovino
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：Pellet and Tahbaz-Salehi (2023) studies the aggregate implications of informational frictions in an input-output production network. Firms combine rigid inputs-which must be chosen under incomplete information about the state of the economy-with flexible ones-which can be fully contingent on the state. At the optimum, they choose to rely more heavily on the latter, substituting away from the former. In the aggregate, incomplete information dampens the impact of productivity and demand shocks, ...
