Local information and firm expectations about aggregates *

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dovern, Jonas; Mueller, Lena Sophia; Wohlrabe, Klaus
• 署名单位: University of Erlangen Nuremberg; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.005
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1-13
• 关键词: GDP expectations; Expectation heterogeneity; DISAGREEMENT; rational inattention; ifo business tendency survey

摘要

Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation. Variables (fixed effects) measuring local signals account for up to 26 % (47 %) of the expectation dispersion across firms. The effect is particularly strong for small firms. Our results confirm predictions of theoretical models with rational inattention.& COPY; 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.