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作者：Shiller, Robert J.
作者单位：Yale University
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作者：Boldrin, Michele; Levine, David K.; Wang, Yong; Zhu, Lijun
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); University of London; Royal Holloway University London; Peking University
摘要：This paper proposes a theory of the dynamics of factor shares within the context of an equilibrium model of endogenous innovation, growth, and cycles. Our deterministic model rests on two assumptions: (i) production requires two complementary inputs, capital, and labor, and (ii) technical progress is labor-saving and embodied in capital goods. The model's unique equilibrium path displays recurring growth cycles, each consisting of an adoption and innovation phase, along which factor shares flu...
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作者：de Souza, Gustavo; Hu, Naiyuan; Li, Haishi; Mei, Yuan
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Renmin University of China; University of Hong Kong; Singapore Management University
摘要：What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? We build a quantitative model of international trade with input-output connections. Sanctioning countries choose import tariffs to simultaneously maximize their income and minimize Russia's income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with low willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is an approximately 20% tariff on all Russian...
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作者：Binder, Carola Conces; Kamdar, Rupal; Ryngaert, Jane M.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Notre Dame
摘要：We document that, during the COVID-19 era, the inflation expectations of Democrats remained strongly anchored, while those of Republicans did not. Republicans' expectations not only rose well above the inflation target, but also became more sensitive to a variety of shocks, including CPI releases and energy prices. We then exploit geographic variation in political affiliation at the MSA level to show that the partial de-anchoring of expectations had implications for realized inflation. Counter...
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作者：Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc; Sahin, Aysegul
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Barclays; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, u(t)*, in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply factors, we also find an important role for current and expected negative unemployment gaps. Through the lens of the model, the 2022-2023 disinflation was driven by the expectation that the unemployment gap ...
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作者：Erosa, Andres; Fuster, Luisa; Kambourov, Gueorgui; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Toronto; Princeton University
摘要：We document systematic differences in wage and earnings inequality both between and within occupations and show that these differences are intimately related to systematic differences in labor supply across occupations. We then develop a variant of a Roy model in which earnings are a non-linear function of hours, with the extent of this non-linearity differing across occupations. In our theory, the interplay between heterogeneity in tastes for leisure and occupational differences in non-linear...
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作者：Georgiadis, Georgios; Mueller, Gernot J.; Schumann, Ben
作者单位：European Central Bank; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Free University of Berlin
摘要：The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar's role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global financial conditions and a synchronized contraction of world economic activity. We benchmark...
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作者：Berriel, Rafael; Gonzalez-Aguado, Eugenia; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Pastorino, Elena
作者单位：Stanford University; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：When is a fiscal union appropriate for a monetary union? In a monetary union without fiscal externalities, when local fiscal authorities have an informational advantage over a central fiscal authority in terms of their knowledge of countries' preferences for government spending, a decentralized fiscal regime dominates a centralized one. Our novel result is that in the presence of fiscal externalities across countries, however, a decentralized fiscal regime is optimal for small monetary unions,...
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作者：Tan, Eugene; Zeida, Teegawende H.
作者单位：University of Toronto; Brock University
摘要：We formulate a framework showing that differences in capital returns and capital intensity between groups of firms can identify relative differences in consumer demand and credit constraints. Using micro -data on Black- and White -owned startups, we find robust evidence that Black -owned startups have lower capital returns, implying that Black -owned startups face lower consumer demand due to race. In contrast, we find mixed evidence of tighter credit constraints due to race. We further show t...
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作者：Clarida, Richard
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper provides a high level review of the common sources of the post pandemic surge in global inflation and some observations about how this surge - and the conduct of monetary policy during this period - may inform us about monetary policy frameworks and execution.
