Global risk and the dollar

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Georgiadis, Georgios; Mueller, Gernot J.; Schumann, Ben
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Free University of Berlin
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.01.002
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Dollar exchange rate; Global risk shocks; international transmission; Bayesian proxy structural VAR

摘要

The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar's role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global financial conditions and a synchronized contraction of world economic activity. We benchmark these effects against counterfactuals in which the dollar does not appreciate. In the absence of dollar appreciation, the contractionary impact of a global risk shock is much weaker, both in the rest of the world and the US. For the rest of the world, contractionary financial channels thus dominate expansionary expenditure switching when global risk rises and the dollar appreciates.