(Trade) War and peace: How to impose international trade sanctions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: de Souza, Gustavo; Hu, Naiyuan; Li, Haishi; Mei, Yuan
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Renmin University of China; University of Hong Kong; Singapore Management University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103572
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Trade sanctions; TARIFFS; Tariff competition

摘要

What is the most cost-efficient way to impose trade sanctions against Russia? We build a quantitative model of international trade with input-output connections. Sanctioning countries choose import tariffs to simultaneously maximize their income and minimize Russia's income, with different weights placed on these objectives. We find, first, that for countries with low willingness to pay for sanctions against Russia, the most cost-efficient sanction is an approximately 20% tariff on all Russian products. Second, if countries are willing to pay at least US$0.70 for each US$1 drop in Russian welfare, an embargo on Russia's mining and energy products is the most cost-efficient policy.