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作者：Carrier, Alexandre; Mavromatis, Kostas
作者单位：European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; University of Amsterdam
摘要：We characterize optimal normalization policy in a framework in which agents' expectations can deviate from the rational expectations benchmark and the central bank faces cost-push shocks. When interest rate fluctuations are costless, our findings indicate that the interest rate is the primary tool for managing inflationary pressures, consistently outperforming balance sheet adjustments, regardless of the expectations formation process. However, under de-anchored expectations, an increasing rol...
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作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Onder, Yasin Kursat; Roch, Francisco
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); International Monetary Fund; Ghent University; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：We study a sovereign default model in which the government issues CoCos (contingent convertible bonds) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments upon a sizable increase of the global risk premium (and thus, of the government's borrowing cost). We find that CoCos allow the government to smooth out the effects of risk-premium shocks on consumption, but they increase the default frequency. By suspending debt payments, CoCos imply higher debt levels and, thus, higher default probabilities after...
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作者：Rostagno, Massimo; Altavilla, Carlo; Carboni, Giacomo; Lemke, Wolfgang; Motto, Roberto; Saint-Guilhem, Arthur
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：The effect of Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) and rate Forward Guidance (FG) on the yield curve is very similar with both policies exerting their maximal impact on a same spectrum of short-to-medium term maturities. Yet, we find that their impact on the predictive interest rate distribution differs. Accommodative FG prices out high interest rate trajectories, thus affecting upper percentiles; NIRP changes the market pricing of the effective lower bound on the policy rate, thus affecting l...
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作者：Ozkan, Serdar
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Toronto
摘要：I show that while the rich spend more on healthcare early in life, the poor outspend them by 25% from middle to old age in the US. Furthermore, the poor seek medical care less frequently but face higher risks of extreme expenses when they do. I develop a life-cycle model, incorporating physical and preventive health capital, along with features of the US healthcare system. Preventive health capital governs the distribution of health shocks, thereby controlling life expectancy. The model sugges...
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作者：Bento, Pedro
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：The number of women-owned businesses in the U.S. has soared over the last several decades. In 1982 less than 13 percent of businesses were majority-owned by women. By 2012 this number reached 40 percent. This and other evidence suggests that women have faced significant barriers to running businesses. Interpreted through the lens of a model of entrepreneurship, observed trends imply substantial declines in several barriers facing female entrepreneurs. Together, these changes account for almost...
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作者：Braun, Robin; Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Saha, Tuli
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bank of England
摘要：We introduce the UK Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (UKMPD), a new and rich dataset of high-frequency monetary policy surprises for the United Kingdom. Intraday surprises are computed around the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's announcements, as well as around the press conference that follows the publication of the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The dataset also includes factors that disentangle the different dimensions of UK monetary policy. We use the data to estimate t...
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作者：Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Diez-Catalan, Luis; Villanueva, Ernesto
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); Deutsche Bundesbank; Banco de Espana
摘要：We analyze the impact of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) due to collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) on wage and employment dynamics during two major recessions in Spain: the low-inflation recession of 2009, which included both short-and long-term CBAs, and the high-inflation recession of 1993, characterized by short-term CBAs. By exploiting variation in the timing of CBA renewals, we find that CBAs signed before recessions result in 1pp higher negotiated wage growth than those signed...
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作者：Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Gazzani, Andrea
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：How do shocks to the supply of natural gas affect output and inflation? To answer this question, we construct an instrument using daily news on the European gas market and employ it within a VAR model of the euro area. We find that negative supply shocks have sizable stagflationary effects and accounted for nearly 50 percent of the increase in core prices observed between 2021 and 2023. The propagation to core prices appears to be larger compared to oil shocks, suggesting that the structural d...
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作者：Pedroni, Marcelo; Singh, Swapnil; Stoltenberg, Christian A.
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Bank of Lithuania; Kaunas University of Technology
摘要：We show that households' private information on future income can be identified from the correlation between consumption growth and future income growth conditional on current income growth. Employing PSID data, we find that this conditional correlation is positive and significant. We use this evidence to structurally estimate a standard incomplete markets model and discover that US households possess enough advance information to reduce their income forecast errors by 15%. This significantly ...
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作者：Birinci, Serdar
摘要：This is a comment on How to Fund Unemployment Insurance with Informality and False Claims: Evidence from Senegal, by Ndiaye, Herkenhoff, Ciss & eacute;, Dell'Acqua, and Mbaye.
