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作者：Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Upon arrival of macroeconomic news, agents update their beliefs about the long-run fundamentals of the economy. I show that signals about agents' expectations, proxied by professional forecasters' outlook revisions, convey sufficient information to identify the effects of expected future technological changes, or news shocks. The approach benefits from not depending on an empirical technology measure or on assumptions about common trends and the timing of the technological change. News shocks ...
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作者：Guerrieri, Veronica
作者单位：University of Chicago
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作者：Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Herkenhoff, Kyle; Cisse, Abdoulaye; Dell'Acqua, Alessandro; Mbaye, Ahmadou A.
作者单位：New York University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar
摘要：This paper studies the welfare effects from the provision of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits in a context where formal workers represent only a small proportion of the labor market and informal workers can submit fraudulent claims for UI benefits. We model these features and allow for varying degrees of enforcement and different funding sources. We then estimate the model's key parameters by conducting a custom labor force survey in Senegal. Our findings show that the liquidity gains are ...
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作者：Han, Leyla Jianyu
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：Revisions of consensus macroeconomic and earnings forecasts positively predict announcement-day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns during forecast revision periods negatively predict announcement-day returns. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic announcements quantitatively accounts for these findings. Under asymmetric information, informed investors' forecast revisions positively predict forecast errors of the uninformed, causing average beliefs to underreact t...
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作者：Ashwin, Julian; Beaudry, Paul; Ellison, Martin
作者单位：Maastricht University; University of British Columbia; University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Neural networks offer a promising tool for the analysis of nonlinear economies. In this paper, we derive conditions for the stability of nonlinear rational expectations equilibria under neural network learning. We demonstrate the applicability of the conditions in analytical and numerical examples where the nonlinearity is caused by monetary policy targeting a range, rather a specific value, of inflation. If shock persistence is high or there is inertia in the structure of the economy, then th...
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作者：Infante, Sebastian; Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We show that the effect of aggregate volatility on idiosyncratic risk sharing depends on the nature of collateral sustaining insurance. While volatility increases the value of public assets- more useful for consumption smoothing-it decreases the value of private assets-more exposed to aggregate variation. Hence, a more volatile economy weakens risk sharing when collateral composition is biased towards private assets. When applied to financial intermediaries that rely heavily on private collate...
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作者：Gnocato, Nicolo
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：Does monetary policy face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and unemployment as soaring energy prices hit the unemployed harder than the employed? Data from the euroarea Consumer Expectations Survey show that job losses not only force workers to lower their consumption but also to devote a higher proportion of it to energy. I incorporate this evidence into a tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with labor market frictions, where energy acts as both a complementary input in...
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作者：Xu, Le; Yu, Yang; Zanetti, Francesco
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University; University of Oxford
摘要：We assemble a firm-level dataset to study the adoption and termination of suppliers over business cycles. We document that the aggregate number and rate of adoption of suppliers are procyclical. The rate of termination is acyclical at the aggregate level, and the cyclicality of termination encompasses large differences across producers. To account for these new facts, we develop a model with optimizing producers that incur separate costs for management, adoption, and termination of suppliers. ...
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作者：Holter, Hans A.; Ljungqvist, Lars; Sargent, Thomas J.; Stepanchuk, Serhiy
作者单位：University of Delaware; University of Oslo; Stockholm School of Economics; New York University; University of Southampton
摘要：We study consequences of tax reforms in an incomplete markets overlapping generations model in which male and female workers with different ability levels self-insure by acquiring a risk- free bond, time-averaging their life-cycle work schedules and career lengths, and possibly by marrying and divorcing. We study incidences of a flat-rate tax and in combination with stylized versions of a negative income tax (NIT) or an earned income tax credit (EITC). Tax reforms have diverse effects that dif...
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作者：Gelain, Paolo; Lorusso, Marco
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Perugia; Newcastle University - UK
摘要：Using US micro-level data on banks, we document a negative effect of high oil prices on US banks' balance sheets, more negative for highly leveraged banks. We set and estimate a general equilibrium model with banking and oil sectors that rationalizes those findings through the financial accelerator mechanism. This mechanism amplifies the effect of oil price shocks, making them non-negligible drivers of the dynamics of US banks' intermediation activity and of the US real economy. Macroprudentia...
