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作者：Na, Seunghoon; Yoo, Donghoon
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Korea University
摘要：We incorporate diagnostic expectations (DE) into small open economy (SOE) models to offer novel insights into business cycles, especially in emerging countries. DE induce overreactions in domestic absorption, leading to countercyclical external balances and endogenous boom-bust cycles driven by surprises rooted in distant memory. This framework offers a cognitive alternative to permanent income shock in conventional SOE models under rational expectations (RE). Using Argentine macro-internation...
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作者：Borovickova, Katarina; Macaluso, Claudia
摘要：We investigate different wage growth rates over the life cycle for poor and rich workers, and how they relate to the frequency and quality of job-to-job transitions. Using the universe of labor market histories for Austrian workers born in 1960-62 to, we show that workers who are at the bottom of the earnings distribution have higher employer-to-employer transition rates than richer workers throughout their life. Nevertheless, they work for worse- and worse-paying firms as they age and are mor...
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作者：Gaudio, Francesco Saverio
作者单位：Sapienza University Rome
摘要：The U.S. stock market participation rate has risen substantially since the 1980s. This paper studies the macro-financial implications of such structural change in a production-based asset-pricing model with external habits, which make investors' effective risk aversion time-varying and decreasing with consumption. In this setup, higher participation generates a fall in the risk-free rate and an increase in the equity premium, consistent with recent U.S. trends. These novel results stem from a ...
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作者：Kohlhas, Alexandre N.; Robertson, Donald
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper develops a tractable theory of cautious expectations. We impose the constraint that agents have to estimate the optimal weight on information in an otherwise standard class of linear quadratic economies. Within this framework, we show that expectations optimally feature dampened responses to new and prior information. Our theory has several similarities to models of limited attention. However, our theory is crucially consistent with the broad-based predictability of forecast errors ...
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作者：Jarosch, Gregor
作者单位：Duke University
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作者：Duan, Jie; Jackson, Paul
作者单位：Zhejiang University; National University of Singapore
摘要：Many college graduates are underemployed, i.e., work in occupations that do not require a college degree. We document that underemployed workers are less likely to transition to a college occupation the longer they are underemployed and that longer underemployment histories are associated with lower wages in college occupations. To explain these findings, we develop a directed search model with unobserved heterogeneity, occupation-specific human capital, and on the job search. Workers are unce...
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作者：Dupraz, Stephane; Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：In standard models, economic activity fluctuates symmetrically around a natural rate and stabilization policies can dampen these fluctuations but do not affect the average level of activity. An alternative view-labeled the plucking model by Milton Friedman-is that economic fluctuations are drops below the economy's full potential ceiling. We show that the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the US display a striking asymmetry that strongly favors the plucking model: increases in unemployment ...
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作者：Olovsson, Conny; Walentin, Karl; Westermark, Andreas
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank; Uppsala University
摘要：International immigration flows are large, volatile, and increasing. We document the dynamic implications of immigration, and account for the differential unemployment and labor force participation rates between immigrants and natives. To quantify the effects of immigration, we use Swedish population registry data and productivity estimates from a matched employer-employee dataset. A refugee (economic) immigration shock yields large initial negative (positive but delayed) effects on GDP per ca...
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作者：Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Takayama, Naoki; Tanaka, Satoshi
作者单位：Georgetown University; Hitotsubashi University; University of Queensland
摘要：This study analyzes how labor market frictions interact with firms' decisions to reallocate workers across different occupations during labor market polarization. We compare the patterns of occupational reallocation within and across firms in the US and Germany in recent years. We find within-firm reallocation contributes significantly to the decline in employment in routine occupations in Germany, but much less so in the US. We construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics and find t...
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作者：Poschke, Markus
作者单位：McGill University; Universite de Montreal; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Poor countries have low wage employment and high self-employment. This paper shows that they also have high unemployment relative to wage employment, and that self-employment increases with this ratio. To understand the sources of these patterns, I build a search and matching model with choice between job search and self-employment and with learning about matches, and calibrate it to match all transition rates between wage employment, unemployment and self-employment as well as separation haza...
