Permanent Capital Losses after Banking Crises*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baron, Matthew; Laeven, Luc; Penasse, Julien; Usenko, Yevhenii
• 署名单位: Georgetown University; European Central Bank; Tilburg University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Luxembourg; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaf052
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Financial crises; fire sales; credit; liquidity; cycles; booms; MODEL; runs

摘要

We study the mechanisms driving bank losses across historical banking crises in 46 economies and the effectiveness of policy interventions in restoring bank capitalization. We find that bank stocks experience large, permanent declines at the onset of crises. These losses predict commensurate long-term declines in banks' earnings and dividends, rather than elevated future equity returns. Bank losses are primarily driven by write-downs of nonperforming assets, not asset sales during panics. Forceful liquidity-based interventions during crises predict only small, temporary increases in bank market value. Overall, these results suggest that bank losses during crises are not primarily due to temporary price dislocations. Early liquidity interventions can avert banking crises, but only under specific conditions. Once large bank equity declines have occurred, policy responses have historically failed to prevent persistent undercapitalization in the banking sector.