Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rodriguez-Clare, Andres; Ulate, Mauricio; Vasquez, Jose P.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/738344
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: general equilibrium-analysis; wage rigidity; LABOR; adjustment; INEQUALITY

摘要

We present a dynamic quantitative trade and migration model that incorporates downward nominal wage rigidities and show how this framework can generate changes in unemployment and labor participation that match those uncovered by the empirical literature studying the China shock. We find that the China shock leads to average welfare increases in most US states, including many that experience unemployment during the transition. However, nominal rigidities reduce the overall US gains by around two-thirds. In addition, there are 18 states that experience welfare losses in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity that would have experienced gains without it.