Traders' expectations in asset markets: Experimental evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Haruvy, Ernan; Lahav, Yaron; Noussair, Charles N.
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas; Emory University; Tilburg University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.97.5.1901
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 1901-1920
• 关键词: Investor sentiment; bubbles; crashes; COORDINATION; experience; KNOWLEDGE

摘要

We elicit traders' predictions of future price trajectories in repeated experimental markets for a 15-period-lived asset. We find that individuals' beliefs about prices are adaptive, and primarily based on past trends in the current and previous markets in which they have participated. Most traders do not anticipate market downturns the first time they participate in a market, and, when experienced, they typically overestimate the time remaining before market peaks and downturns occur. When prices deviate from fundamental values, belief data are informative to an observer in predicting the direction of future price movements and the timing of market peaks.