The Reach of Radio: Ending Civil Conflict through Rebel Demobilization

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Armand, Alex; Atwell, Paul; Gomes, Joseph E.
• 署名单位: Universidade Nova de Lisboa; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Universite Catholique Louvain; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181135
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1395-1429
• 关键词: economic shocks; VIOLENCE; propaganda; ETHNICITY; media

摘要

We examine the role of FM radio in mitigating violent conflict. We collect original data on radio broadcasts encouraging defections during the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency. This constitutes the first quantitative evaluation of an active counterinsurgency policy that encourages defections through radio messages. Exploiting random topography-driven variation in radio coverage along with panel variation at the grid-cell level, we identify the causal effect of messaging on violence. Broadcasting defection messages increases defections and reduces fatalities, violence against civilians, and clashes with security forces. Income shocks have opposing effects on both the conflict and the effectiveness of messaging.