Venting Out: Exports during a Domestic Slump

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Almunia, Miguel; Antras, Pol; Lopez-Rodriguez, David; Morales, Eduardo
• 署名单位: CUNEF Universidad; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Banco de Espana; Princeton University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181853
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 3611-3662
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; MARKET; networks; industry; margins; gravity; prices

摘要

We study the relationship between domestic-demand shocks and exports using data for Spanish manufacturing firms in 2002-2013. Exploiting plausibly exogenous geographical variation caused by the Great Recession, we find that firms whose domestic sales declined by more experienced a larger increase in export flows, controlling for firms' supply determinants. This result illustrates the capacity of export markets to counteract the negative impact of local demand shocks. By structurally estimating a heterogeneous-firm model of exporting with nonconstant marginal costs of production, we conclude that these firm-level responses accounted for half of the spectacular increase in Spanish goods exports over the period 2009-2013. (JEL D22, E32, F14, L60)