Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Arnold, David; Dobbie, Will; Hull, Peter
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Brown University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201653
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 2992-3038
• 关键词: PRETRIAL DETENTION; IMPACT; POLICY; RACE

摘要

We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure disparate impact, regardless of its source, in the context of bail decisions. We show that omitted variables bias in pretrial release rate comparisons can be purged by using the quasi-random assignment of judges to estimate average pretrial misconduct risk by race. We find that two-thirds of the release rate disparity between White and Black defendants in New York City is due to the disparate impact of release decisions. We then develop a hierarchical marginal treatment effect model to study the drivers of disparate impact, finding evidence of both racial bias and statistical discrimination.