The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Schmieder, Johannes F.; von Wachter, Till; Heining, Joerg
• 署名单位: Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20200252
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1208-1254
• 关键词: high wage workers; unemployment benefits; earnings losses; great recession; mobility; FIRMS; insurance; size

摘要

We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the busi-ness cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cycli-cal, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses and their cyclicality is driven by declines in wages. Key to these long-lasting wage declines and their cyclical-ity are changes in employer characteristics, as displaced workers switch to lower-paying firms. These losses increase with duration of nonemployment. Changes in characteristics of displaced workers or displacing firms, and other post-job loss career outcomes explain little of the cyclicality. (JEL E24, E32, J31, J63, J64, J65)