Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fujiwara, Thomas; Meng, Kyle; Vogl, Tom
• 署名单位: Princeton University; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Princeton University; Princeton University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20140533
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 160-188
• 关键词: voter turnout; political-participation; field experiment; newspaper entry; BEHAVIOR; weather; persistence; incentives; migration; altruism

摘要

We estimate habit formation in voting-the effect of past on current turnout-by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.6-1.0 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers.