Capital Markets in China and Britain, 1770-1860: Evidence from Grain Prices

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Keller, Wolfgang; Shiue, Carol H.; Wang, Xin
• 署名单位: University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Peking University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20180299
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 31-64
• 关键词: stochastic convenience yield; commodity futures; HISTORY; storage; 18th-century; divergence; EVOLUTION; ECONOMICS; Europe; relief

摘要

Based on comprehensive grain price data, we employ a storage model to estimate consistent interest rates and compare capital market development between Britain and China. Interest rates for Britain were lower than China's on average by about 3 percentage points from 1770 to 1860. For country pairs with bilateral distance less than 200 kilometers, the regional capital market integration in the Yangzi Delta in China comes close to the British average; but at larger distances, spatial interest rate correlations in Britain are twice those of the Delta and three or more times as high as elsewhere in China. Overall, our results suggest capital market development differences at an early date, so that capital market performance may be important for the Great Divergence that emerged between China and Western countries at this time.